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Tag: "Economy"

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Joseph Stiglitz weighs in on the Federal Reserve
By Brynn Jacobs on March 04th, 2010

Joseph Stiglitz weighs in on the Federal Reserve

Joseph Stiglitz is one of the greatest economists in the world. He’s held professorships at Yale, Stanford, Duke, Princeton and Oxford Universities, and now teaches at Columbia University. He was the chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors under Clinton. He served as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the World Bank from 1997 to 2000. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001. There should be no disputing that he is eminently qualified in the field of economics, which is all the more reason for you to pay attention to what he says about the Federal Reserve.

Speaking at a conference held by the Roosevelt Institute, he said that if a country had come to the World Bank under his tenure seeking aid, while maintaining a financial regulatory system like the Federal Reserve, it would have raised very big alarms:

“If we had seen a governance structure that corresponds to our Federal Reserve system, we would have been yelling and screaming and saying that country does not deserve any assistance, this is a corrupt governing structure,” Stiglitz said during a conference on financial reform in New York. “It’s time for us to reflect on our own structure today, and to say there are parts that can be improved.”

Current Events • Economy • Featured • History
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By Erich Vieth on March 01st, 2010

How big are the big banks?

At The New Republic, Simon Johnson and Peter Boone offer some eye-popping numbers to illustrate how big the big banks have gotten:

As a result of the crisis and various government rescue efforts, the largest six banks in our economy now have total assets in excess of 63 percent of GDP (based on the latest available data). This is a significant increase from even 2006, when the same banks’ assets were around 55 percent of GDP, and a complete transformation compared with the situation in the United States just 15 years ago, when the six largest banks had combined assets of only around 17 percent of GDP. If the status quo persists, we are set up for another round of the boom-bailout-bust cycle that the head of financial stability at the Bank of England now terms a “doom loop.”

From the same article, here’s more numbers to illustrate how big is big:

The big four have half of the market for mortgages and two-thirds of the market for credit cards. Five banks have over 95 percent of the market for over-the-counter derivatives. Three U.S. banks have over 40 percent of the global market for stock underwriting. This degree of market power brings with it not just antitrust concerns, which this administration has declined to act on, and a huge amount of economic risk–but great political influence as well. The banks are going to use that power to block legislation containing any meaningful financial reform. And they are likely to succeed.

Can we simply regulate banks? More bad news:

The idea that we can simply regulate huge banks more effectively assumes that regulators will have the incentive to do so, despite everything we know about regulatory capture and political constraints on regulation.

In their conclusion, the authors are not optimistic that the Obama White House has the will to push meaningful reform.

Economy • Featured
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By Erich Vieth on February 06th, 2010

Going down?

Writing at the NYT, Bob Herbert thinks that the U.S. desperately needs to turn things around. His concern is “frantic, debt-driven consumption, speculative bubbles, exotic financial instruments . . .” He’s not buying talk of our economic “recovery”:

We don’t hear a lot that is serious about the sorry state of the nation’s infrastructure or the trade policies that crippled so many American industries or our inability (or unwillingness) to compete effectively with China when it comes to the new world of energy for the 21st century or our abject failure to provide a quality public education for the next generation of American workers, scientists, artists and entrepreneurs.

Speaking at a conference here on Wednesday, Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania said that if we don’t act quickly in developing long-term solutions to these and other problems, the United States will be a second-rate economic power by the end of this decade. A failure to act boldly, he said, will result in the U.S. becoming “a cooked goose.”

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By Erich Vieth on February 05th, 2010

Time to stop scoffing at those who worry about the budget deficit

How bad is the U.S. budget deficit? It’s so bad that I’ve lost sleep over it during the past year, even though the extent of the deficit rarely makes any local news. Here’s how Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal summarizes the situation:

The federal government is expected to borrow $1.6 trillion this year, or about $15,000 for every household in the country. Over the next 10 years it’s expected to borrow a total of $8.5 trillion. And the government was already deeply in debt to begin with. . . Remarkably, the Treasury market has not yet panicked about the deficits: Yields have barely risen this week. Embedded in the market is a long-term inflation forecast of about 2.5 percent. I call that a dangerous complacency.

After giving the bad news, Arends gives some advice on how to protect your savings, though he doesn’t sound optimistic.

Economy
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By Erich Vieth on January 18th, 2010

Simon Johnson finds tax-the-banks solution laughable

Barack Obama recently announced that the way to prevent future economic collapses is to put a new tax the big banks. For me, this was just one more in a long line of dreadful responses out of the White House. Who does he think is going to ultimately pay that tax? Further, how could a tax possibly keep big Wall Street banks from taking reckless gambles, and how is it that having a pool of tax money would mean that Washington DC wouldn’t again jump in to “save the banks” with huge doses of tax dollars during the next cataclysmic crash? As long as there are banks that are “too big to fail,” the federal government will jump in a most co-dependent of ways.

I just read an FT.com article by economist Simon Johnson, who reassured me that my instincts were on target.

This week, the US Treasury pulled its latest rabbit out of the hat: a tax on the liabilities of large banks. The Obama administration argues that, by penalising large institutions with such taxes, we can limit their future risk-taking. This logic is deeply flawed. Why would higher funding costs mean you gamble less? If you know Tim Geithner is waiting to bail you out, you may gamble more heavily in order to pay the tax. The UK “reforms” look equally unpromising.

Johnson also spells out what IS needed:

First, we must sharply raise capital requirements at leveraged institutions, so shareholders rather than regulators play the leading role in making sure their money is used sensibly. This means tripling capital requirements so banks hold at least 20-25 per cent of assets in core capital.

Second, we need to end the political need to bail out every institution that fails. This can be helped by putting strict limits on the size of institutions, and forcing our largest banks, including the likes of Goldman Sachs and Barclays, to become much smaller.

For reasons I truly don’t understand, Obama is refusing to stand up and use his magnificent eloquence to make a case for meaningful financial reform. This has been a slow-motion train wreck for the past year, and he’s about to allow the chance to create a CFPA slip away. He needs to join Elizabeth Warren in an almost constant assault on these highly monied amoral corporations (and their enablers in Congress) that it’s time for real reform. As Warren (who IS out there fighting a good fight) says, “The problem is that a strong CFPA directly threatens the banks’ ability to sell confusing, deceptive, fee-heavy financial products that generate huge profits, Warren said.”

Corruption • Economy • Politics
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By Erich Vieth on January 15th, 2010

Pay ratio insanity

Les Leopold makes some important points regarding our bloated finance-heavy economy. One statistic stands out:

In 1970 the ratio of pay between the top 100 CEOs and the average worker was 45 to 1. By 2008 it was 1,081 to one.

Economy
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By Erich Vieth on December 22nd, 2009

The ten biggest Wall Street lies of 2009

Author Les Leopold sums it up nicely, including the fact that TARP is only the tip of iceberg regarding taxpayer money being poured into Wall Street coffers.

Merry Christmas to the big Wall Street banks, who work hard to . . . someone please remind me how these big banks to make the world a better place–what do they do for the economy or for productivity? Please tell me something more convincing than free market fundamentalism.

Economy • Fraud • snake oil
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William K. Black: It’s time for real economic reform
By Erich Vieth on November 22nd, 2009

William K. Black: It’s time for real economic reform

We are a nation in severe crisis. According to William K. Black, a white-collar criminologist, President Obama doesn’t deserve any more of our patience:

The Obama administration promoted Bush’s architects of the financial disaster and demands that we hail them as heroes. President Bush was ridiculed for saying: “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.” FEMA administrator Michael Brown stood by while Hurricane Katrina reduced a single large city to ruin. Geithner and Bernanke stood by while scores of large cities were devastated.

Black offer much more than criticism. He offers ten opportunities for digging us out of this mess. It will be difficult to attain any of these while the banks own Congress, but we need to dig deeply an somehow find the political will. Here are two of Black’s points that stand out to me:

Can the Wrecking Crew. Fire the senior leaders of Bush’s and Clinton’s financial Wrecking Crews and stopping treating them as financial experts. President Obama should not reappoint Bernanke as Fed Chairman. He should dismiss Geithner and Summers and cease to take any advise from Rubin. Replace them with the Reconstruction Crew — people with a track record of getting things right and being effective economists, regulators, and prosecutors . . .

End “too big to fail.” These banks are “systemically dangerous institutions” (SDIs). They should not be allowed to grow. They should be shrunk to the point that they no longer pose systemic risk, and they should be subject to vigorous regulation while shrinking. They are too big to manage and too big to regulate. They are ticking time bombs that will cause recurrent global crises as long as they are SDIs.

Here are some of Black’s other suggestions. I agree with all of them whole-heartedly:

- We need to provide the FBI with 1,000 more specialized white-collar crime investigators.

- No more executive compensation looting.

- Kill TARP and PPIP. (”Use the funds to help honest homeowners that would otherwise lose their homes because of predatory loan terms.”)

- Make the Federal Reserve System public.

- Defeat any proposal to make the Fed the “Uberregulator.”

- Create a robust “Consumer Financial Product Agency.

- End the waste of long-term unemployment (Instead, of paying them to do nothing, pay them to do public works)

Consider, also, Black’s Five Fatal Flaws of Finance.

Communication • Corruption • Economy • Featured • Politics • Psychology Cognition
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By Erich Vieth on November 18th, 2009

We’re another step closer to auditing the Federal Reserve

This has been a long time coming. The Federal Reserve has never been audited. Ever. The House has now moved us a step closer to shedding real light on all of the secret deals:

The measure, cosponsored by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), authorizes the Government Accountability Office to conduct a wide-ranging audit of the Fed’s opaque deals with foreign central banks and major U.S. financial institutions. The Fed has never had a real audit in its history and little is known of what it does with the trillions of dollars at its disposal.

Economy • Featured • Politics
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Jeffrey Sachs: Democrats and Republicans both offer only snake oil for the economy
By Erich Vieth on November 11th, 2009

Jeffrey Sachs: Democrats and Republicans both offer only snake oil for the economy

Jeffrey Sachs, the Director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University, has sharply criticized both the Democrat and Republican approaches to dealing with our failing economy.

For instance, Sachs complains that President Obama is seeking to kick up consumer spending through “near-zero interest rates, massive Fed financing of mortgages and various consumption incentives, such as rebates for new home-buyers and cash for clunkers.” According to Sachs, though this will simply get us into a new bubble, as the US consumer is encouraged to over-borrow. This is a terrible strategy “with budget deficits of about 10 per cent of gross domestic product.”

How about those Republicans? Their “solution” is equally terrible:

For every problem there is a single Republican answer: tax cuts. Simple arithmetic reveals the stunning shortsightedness of this proposition. The federal government collects about 17 per cent of GDP in tax revenues. That roughly equals the outlays on social security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans’ benefits, defence and interest payments on debt.

All the rest – roads, rail, clean energy, science and technology, diplomacy, international disease control, space, education, job training, water, transport, courts, poverty relief, homeland security, conservation, climate adaptation – is financed on borrowed money. All of these critical areas are underfunded, which hinders productivity, national security and private investment.

What a good idea that is being largely ignored? Sachs likes the idea of jump-starting the green economy:

One where the jobs would come through a massive expansion of low-carbon energy. We were told about plug-in hybrids, intercity fast rail and new water and sewerage plants to replace the crumbling infrastructure. We were told about a new infrastructure bank to fashion complex multi-state projects that would employ huge numbers of workers while building a cutting-edge economy.

Economy • Featured • Politics
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By Erich Vieth on November 02nd, 2009

Dylan Ratigan asks why Tim Geithner still has a job

In a succinct and powerful video, Dylan Ratigan wonders why Tim Geithner still is our Treasury Secretary. Senator Maria Cantwell, who makes an appearance on this video, wonders this too, calling Geithner’s job performance “appalling.” I agree. It’s time for Obama to start fresh while we are not in crisis mode. He can do this without starting a panic by saying something like, “We thank Mr. Geithner for his service getting us through this crisis.” But then, by all means, throw the bum out and let’s pick an honest outsider (not another Goldman Sachs alum) to lead the way. Am I being harsh when I say “bum”? Nope . . . I’m being restrained. Geithner should be taking the time to use the mass media to teach common people what went wrong, how we can avoid it happening again, and explaining exactly where our public tax dollars have gone. Because he refuses to do any of this, and he refuses to be an powerful advocate for taxpayers, he should step aside. It is clear that he doesn’t understand who he is supposed to represent.

If I were to speak more bluntly, I would say that Tim Geithner is committing a fraud on the U.S. public. Here are the words of Robert Johnson, former economist at the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Budget Committee

[Geithner] speaks as though they’re doing very comprehensive reform. Unfortunately, in the United States, one of the reasons we had the bubble and the crisis was because we have a broken political system, where campaign money, lobbying influence of the financial sector is enormous, and it created bad regulations, bad laws. I’m going back into the Reagan period, Bush the senior, particularly the Clinton era. We’ve made a mess, and now we come back from a crisis where the population knows darn well what a mess we’ve made. But the problem is, at this point, the people in power, the moneyed interests are still in power. And a large portion of these reforms are either cosmetic or designed by the industry and quite ineffective. . .

Ground Zero, the San Andreas Fault of our financial system, where it blew up last time, was in the intersection between “too big to fail” firms and over-the-counter derivatives and that these derivatives need to be put on exchanges, because they’re too complex, and when they’re combined with the “too big to fail” firms, which have a 95 percent market share in OTC derivatives, five banks, that it can create a situation, like we were talking about moments ago, where Citibank could not be restructured. The spider web of positions in derivatives is so complex and so entangled that it deters policy officials from being able to put them through restructuring, because they’re afraid of what kind of spin-offs and consequences will happen. I spoke about the credit default swap market and the illusion of safety that those credit default swap contracts created when they’re unregulated, because everybody thought AIG was going to be able to pay the bill, but they weren’t, and then the taxpayer got to provide that capital.

It’s also time for Cantwell and her Senate colleagues to quit blaming Treasury for failing to lead the way. Congress has the power to make laws; it should should pass the necessary laws to close the “loopholes” she finds so appalling.

Economy • Featured • Politics • Psychology Cognition
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The unspoken reality of “Peak Oil”
By Brynn Jacobs on October 20th, 2009

The unspoken reality of “Peak Oil”

THE world will have to find four Saudi Arabias by 2030 if it wants to maintain its oil dependency, the International Energy Agency says.

The reality of peak oil is fast approaching, and more must be done to develop and encourage the use of alternatives including solar and nuclear, the agency’s chief economist has warned.

“My main motto never changes, the era of low oil prices is over,” Dr Fatih Birol said.

That’s the verdict reported today in The Australian. I thought I’d check to see what other sources had to say about Birol’s assertion, but I cannot find a single U.S.- based source reporting it, other than blogs that are dedicated to peak-oil issues. This is rapidly becoming a crisis, and almost nobody is discussing it in America. Not just here, of course– study groups in Britain have been trying to get their government to begin planning for the reality of peak oil for years, and now they are saying it’s simply too late. (see this also).

Current Events • Economy • Featured • War
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By Erich Vieth on October 12th, 2009

William Black’s five fatal flaws of finance

William Black is a white-collar criminologist who has written a compelling account of how the bloated parasitic financial sector is ruining America in his recent post at Huffpo. These are Black’s five “fatal flaws” of finance:

1. The financial sector harms the real economy. Even when not in crisis, the financial sector harms the real economy. First, it is vastly too large.

2. The financial sector produces recurrent, intensifying economic crises here and abroad.

3. The financial sector’s predation is so extraordinary that it now drives the upper one percent of our nation’s income distribution and has driven much of the increase in our grotesque income inequality.

4. The financial sector’s predation and its leading role in committing and aiding and abetting accounting control fraud combine to: A) Corrupt financial elites and professionals, and B) Spur a rise in Social Darwinism in an attempt to justify the elites’ power and wealth.

5. The CEOs of the largest financial firms are so powerful that they pose a critical risk to the financial sector, the real economy, and our democracy.

The Solution: Fix the real economy, if you can find it. “The real economy came off the rails at least three decades ago for the great majority of Americans.”

I was highly impressed with William Black after seeing him interviewed by Bill Moyers. And now, after reading this detailed by accessible analysis, I’m even more impressed. We can’t begin to fix the economy unless we begin to implement basic principles we can actually understand. Fixing the real economy and making sure that finance is merely the servant of the real economy are clearly steps one and two, for each of the reasons listed by Black.

Economy • Featured • Fraud • Politics
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