It is surreal to read these quotes about the unreliability of science publications by people in a good position to evaluate this dysfunction.
“The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Science has taken a turn toward darkness.”
-Richard Horton, former Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet (the world’s premier medical journal) [
Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of The Lancet, wrote this statement in a comment titled "Offline: What is medicine's 5 sigma?" published in the journal on April 11, 2015.]
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"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" (2006)
John P. A. Ioannidis
There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
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Karl Kanthak posts this:
“Health research is based on trust. Health professionals and journal editors reading the results of a clinical trial assume that the trial happened and that the results were honestly reported. But about 20% of the time, said Ben Mol, professor of obstetrics and gynaecology at Monash Health, they would be wrong.”
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Post by InsiderHCW:
It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgement of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion.
- Marcia Angell, Editor, New England Journal of Medicine. [Marcia Angell wrote this statement in her article "Drug Companies & Doctors: A Story of Corruption," published in The New York Review of Books on January 15, 2009].
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So how do we know who to trust, in science, media, politics, or anywhere else that people claim that they are experts and that we need to trust them? It makes one almost this cynical . . .