The COVID Vaccine: The Long Pole in the Tent

"The Long Pole in the Tent" is a common term used by the US Army to describe the most difficult, or time-consuming, or resource-intensive task in getting a job from start to finish. Often, it is all three. We are in the midst of a nearly year-long effort to develop a vaccine that will fix the pandemic. Victory is in sight.

Not so fast. Vaccines don’t save lives. Vaccinations save lives. For that to occur, far more is needed than developing the molecules for a messenger RNA (mRNA) virus, or manipulating a cold virus (adenovirus) to carry elements of another cold virus (COVID19) that will prompt the human immune system to develop the necessary tools to kill the latter virus. That work is critical, and can only be done by highly-educated and disciplined scientists familiar with how to work at the molecular level with biology, how to develop and choose among candidate vaccines, how to establish testing methods and protocols, and thirty thousand other things few people on earth are qualified to do. We owe them a debt of gratitude.

Their work is in vain, though, until a vaccine becomes a vaccination, which is a vaccine that is injected into a patient. This brings us to the long pole in the tent: getting a manufactured vaccine safely and securely into the syringe to be injected into the patient.

The next step is manufacturing the vaccines. Why we need more than one is a story guaranteed to cure insomnia. Each vaccine uses a separate mechanism to interfere in the virus’s nefarious activities. None is “the best” for everyone, and some carry risks for certain groups but not risks for others. Why that is so will cure insomnia relapse.

Vaccine manufacturing isn’t like home-cooked meth. Very strict procedures, highly technical machinery, well-trained workers and pure ingredients are needed. Each batch must undergo quality assurance. When the vaccine is finished, it must be carefully measured into individual vials, usually of five doses each. Vials go into cartons of either 200 or 1,000 vials. Three vaccines are on the verge of being approved for manufacturing.

Each of these three vaccines each operates a bit differently, and each follows a different track in the supply chain. Obviously, all are tamper-evident sealed, bar-coded, receipted all the way through. Only one of them can remain effective at room temperature, let’s call that one ATZ. Ideally, everybody takes ATZ. Except it carries different risks for different people than the other two. And, ATZ, will have to re-enter Stage III trials to correct a testing error, so it won’t be ready immediately.

When it is ready, it’s easily handled with existing secure processes. On arrival at port it is offloaded, undergoes customs inspection and payment of any import fees, turned over to the consignee who is probably a Third-Party Logistics (3PL) provider. Because the vaccine does not require refrigeration, the contents are broken down in a warehouse for separate shipments to hospitals, pharmacy chains, group practices, distribution centers and government stockpiles. This will work well in First World Counties, even in landlocked countries such as Switzerland, Andorra, San Marino, the Vatican, and small nations such as Singapore, New Zealand, Iceland and Monaco.

The Third World is not so lucky. Much of the world is tribal, and vaccines entering a tribal country are likely to be kept by the ruling tribe to keep subjugated tribes in line. Keloptocracies and mob-ruled countries will make equitable distribution problematic. Lack of reliable roadways or railways will delay deliveries and lose some vials. Stops at international and intranational borders offer opportunity for mischief. And, keeping track of where things are is difficult enough in First World countries; in Third-World countries, the basics are still aspirational.

Even first-world countries such as Bahamas face a daunting task reaching individual islands. Small countries, such as Palau or Samoa, will never be a priority for scheduled air travel nor ocean cargo. Then, there are dozens of areas of active conflict, ranging from Donbass in Ukraine to war of starvation in Yemen. And India still struggles with the basics.

All of this is for the best case. The other two vaccines present much greater logistical challenges and will be dealt with in Chapters Two and Three. Where we are will then be addressed in Chapter Four.

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Would you Invite a Poisonous Snake to Run Loose at Thanksgiving Gathering?

I will not be attending any indoor holiday gatherings this year. I'll refrain for the same reason that I don't bring poisonous snakes to family gatherings. Imagine that it's one year ago, before COVID was a thing. Assume that your extended family invited you to a big holiday celebration. You mention to your family that you will be bringing your pet poisonous snake and letting it run loose in the house during the celebration. Your family is aghast. You reassure them: My snake is shy. It will probably slither under a couch and stay there the entire time. In fact, there is only a 1% chance that the snake would bite one or more people. There's only a 1% chance that people bitten by the snake would die and only another 5% of people who are bitten would have long-lasting residual physical complications.

What would your family say? How is this risk any different than the risk of COVID other than the dangerous being visible rather than invisible?

I've seen the stats. 38% of Americans plan to attend Thanksgiving gatherings with 10 or more people. I understand that we are intensely social animals and that the social isolation triggering depression and probably killing people. I know that there are still some lingering questions about exactly how contagious and how dangerous COVID is in various environments. That said, I won't be attending any indoor gatherings this holiday season. Instead, I'll be attending two short scaled-down family outdoor gatherings at a distance (it's supposed to be about 50 degrees where I live). I'm not willing to send anyone I love to the hospital in order to eat turkey in a warm room. Not when there are alternatives to visiting indoors, including Zoom. Not when the hospitals are almost filled and health care workers are stretched hard to handle this onslaught.

Have a safe holiday season!

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You Get the Political Leaders You Deserve on COVID

Ten years ago, who would have ever believed that in the middle of a pandemic that has killed as many Americans as 1,000 commercial airliners crashing and burning within a period of 8 months (each of them carrying 250 passengers), many of us would have preferred political leaders who would falsely tell us that there was not a serious pandemic and we could simply go on with our lives? In the abstract, that proposition would have been absurd, but here we are.

Here is Christopher Christakis, a voice I trust on both the medical issues and on the political landscape regarding COVID (click through to hear the short statement).

If you'd like to hear more from Christakis, listen to Making Sense podcast #222 (with Sam Harris):

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Holiday Gloom re COVID

I agree with Chris Hayes here. Cold weather + holiday parties + travel + Thanksgiving feasts + Christmas gathering would seem to be a perfect storm for COVID, especially with numbers already spiking. We were concerned about the pandemic back in March, when the rate of infections was a tiny fraction of what it is now. This is insanity.

BTW, my elderly mother and her adult children WILL have an hour-long in-person Thanksgiving celebration this year. We will meet outside at my mom's house during the "heat" of the day, spread far apart from each other on lawn chairs, eating our BYO snack and drink for about an hour. Unless it's surprisingly warm, in which case we might linger longer.

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