Addicted to Risk without a backup plan

The BP oil spill was one of the more recent examples of overconfidence, according to Naomi Klein. Also consider the financial collapse and overconfidence that was rampant prior to our military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Klein states that we are addicted to risk. Instead of asking how how to proceed prudently, we ask bizarre questions such as these: - What is the latest possible moment we can act to remedy a major problem? - How much hotter can we let the planet get? These questions are being driven by economists rather than scientists. Greed and hubris are factors in this mindset, and fear of failure seems to be lacking. Klein gives the illustration of a 35-year old banker who is taking home more than 100 times as much salary as a brain surgeon. That banker seeks a narrative other than thinking that he is a good scammer who gamed the system. He will likely start believing that he is a genius and that he is somehow contributing to society, or at least not hurting others. But he does absorb the narrative that he is a genius, and being told that you are a genius who is born to rule is a "peril of privilege." People in these positions adopt traditional narratives that enhance their feelings of superiority over others. These archetypal narratives include the following "fairy tales": - Newly discovered frontier and conquering pioneer; - Manifest destiny; - Endless growth; - We don't need to change our lifestyles; - Apocalypse and salvation. We will be "saved" in the end with technology. They also embrace deep narratives that Mother Nature is there to be conquered and yet she is always forgiving and resilient; there will always be a frontier. Klein argues that these are lies, and we are running up against severe physical limits. We have already exhausted easy energy and we are now into the era of "extreme energy." This means we ravaging the earth to get to dramatically diminishing returns. Exhibit A is the tar sand region of Canada which, to produce oil, requires ripping away the trees and contaminating huge amounts of water. Vast landscapes are being decimated (see the video for some of these dramatic images). It takes three times as much energy to produce a barrel of oil this was as it takes to produce conventional oil. In terms of greenhouse gases, this is "insanity." This is how civilizations "commit suicide." Klein states that we need new heroes with new kinds of stories that will replace the current linear narrative of endless growth with circular narratives of what goes around comes around.

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7 billion reasons to consider 7 billion

In the three minutes it takes to view this excellent National Geographic video on the rapidly increasing numbers of people, earth's population will increase by 170 people. That explosive growth has real life ramifications that will affect our quality of life: I applaud the willingness of National Geographic to discuss this critically important issue. Many people and organizations shy away from the topic of the earth's carrying capacity. Another organization dedicated to making sure that we don't shy away from the topic is Global Population Speak Out (GPSO). Here is GPSO mission statement:

The Population Institute, based in Washington DC, is seeking prominent scientists, scholars, and other concerned citizens to participate in this international program of action. The mission is to raise awareness in the global community about the current size and growth of the human population on Earth -- and to highlight the challenges this size and growth present as we attempt to achieve planet-scale ecological sustainability.

I am proud to say that I am Pledger #36.

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Neoclassical economists have no clothes

According to Wikipedia, "Neoclassical economics dominates microeconomics, and together with Keynesian economics forms the neoclassical synthesis, which dominates mainstream economics today." At Scientific American, Robert Nadeau argues that neoclassical economists have no clothes.

[[Neoclassical economics] can no longer be regarded as useful even in pragmatic or utilitarian terms because it fails to meet what must now be viewed as a fundamental requirement of any economic theory—the extent to which this theory allows economic activities to be coordinated in environmentally responsible ways on a worldwide scale. Because neoclassical economics does not even acknowledge the costs of environmental problems and the limits to economic growth, it constitutes one of the greatest barriers to combating climate change and other threats to the planet.

What are the false assumptions of this still widely cherished model? Nadeau lists them:
* The market system is a closed circular flow between production and consumption, with no inlets or outlets. * Natural resources exist in a domain that is separate and distinct from a closed market system, and the economic value of these resources can be determined only by the dynamics that operate within this system. * The costs of damage to the external natural environment by economic activities must be treated as costs that lie outside the closed market system or as costs that cannot be included in the pricing mechanisms that operate within the system. * The external resources of nature are largely inexhaustible, and those that are not can be replaced by other resources or by technologies that minimize the use of the exhaustible resources or that rely on other resources. * There are no biophysical limits to the growth of market systems.

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A glimpse at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai, China

More than 190 countries are displaying their culture and architecture at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai, China. The Expo will run until October 31, 2010. My brother-in-law, Dan Jay (who is an architect in St. Louis at Christner, Inc.) kindly allowed me to publish some of his many photos of the pavilions of participating nations; he returned from the Expo only a few days ago. Click on the photos for expanded views. What you will see immediately below is the U.K. Pavilion, The 20-meter-high cube-like Seed Cathedral is covered by 60,000 slim, transparent acrylic 7-meter long rods, which quiver in the breeze, each of these rods containing a certain type of seed. This exhibit is designed to be a call from the UK to protect our natural species.

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Priorities

I spotted this quote by Tom Friedman on Daily Dish:

China is doing moon shots. Yes, that’s plural. When I say “moon shots” I mean big, multibillion-dollar, 25-year-horizon, game-changing investments. China has at least four going now: one is building a network of ultramodern airports; another is building a web of high-speed trains connecting major cities; a third is in bioscience...; and, finally, Beijing just announced that it was providing $15 billion in seed money for the country’s leading auto and battery companies to create an electric car industry... Not to worry. America today also has its own multibillion-dollar, 25-year-horizon, game-changing moon shot: fixing Afghanistan.
The story doesn't end with this helpful and insightful quote. Perhaps, the above quote is an attempt by Friedman to attempt to redeem himself for his pro-war rhetoric from prior years. He has himself to thank for the fact that the U.S. warmongering mentality has caused us to fall so far behind China. And we continue to fall behind China because we can't wake up from our nightmare in which relatively few people armed with unsophisticated weapons such as box-cutters are deemed more dangerous than the Soviet Union at its height, armed with thousands of nuclear warheads. Thus, we will continue to spend more than half of our federal tax revenue on military pursuits. Our exuberant and delusional warmongering is killing our economy and our future.

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