The Best Thing to Do About People Who Carefully Rely on Statistics When Analyzing Complex Social Issues? Fire Them.

What is the effect of violent protests (versus peaceful protests) on future elections? This would seem to be a compelling topic these days. As one example of many, would it affect voters to see a video of people breaking into a car dealership in Oakland, spray painting vehicles and then setting several vehicles on fire as part of a political protest related to the detestable homicide of George Floyd?

What if a person, citing relevant statistics by Princeton political scientist Omar Wasow, offers insights based on these statistics?  Apparently, the best response is to get that person fired because such a Tweet would allegedly be "racist."  That's what happened in the case of David Shor, as reported by Vox. The video posted above post-dates the firing of Shor, but I am posting it to illustrate.

Here is Shor's May 28, 2020 Tweet:

Now, two excerpts from the detailed article in Vox:

Mass demonstrations work, in other words, but looting and disorder are counterproductive. This was Shor’s sin: repeating Wasow’s findings that marching is good but looting and vandalism are counterproductive.

...

Shor did not say that protesting is harmful; he said that rioting is harmful. And he didn’t say that data should dictate how people feel. And while one data scientist’s tweet of one political science paper should not be the last word on social movement tactics, the reasonable response to Shor would be to counter with some other form of evidence. Instead, the dialogue followed a pattern in progressive circles that often involves making evidence-free assertions about how members of various groups feel.

My concern is that we have entered an era where many people and institutions exuberantly accept feelings as a the best way to understand the world, and that feelings are more compelling than careful analysis of facts, even when the factual analysis is based on statistics.  I am seeing ubiquitous examples where intelligent-seeming people declare that anecdotes are superior to careful analysis, both on the political left and right.

We seem to be entering a new Dark Age, where important conversations can no longer be had and where thoughtful people need to choose among these two options, where there are only these two options: A) Your need to express your thoughts freely in a nation created upon the assumption that people must talk with each other freely and B) Your need to not get fired from your job.

John McWhorter sees what might be a light at the end of the tunnel:

I hope McWhorter is correct.  I seem to be losing 1% of hope each day.

Continue ReadingThe Best Thing to Do About People Who Carefully Rely on Statistics When Analyzing Complex Social Issues? Fire Them.

Hear No Facts, See No Facts.

At the Wall Street Journal, Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes that many of the most vocal players in our re-energized race debates are incentivized to maintain conflict rather than seeking solutions. I have seen what Ali has seen about the the resistance to facts and statistics when these things are inconvenient to the narrative of choice by those supporting the Black Lives Matter political agenda (which is separate and distinct from the idea that Black lives do, of course, matter). Whenever there is such a disconnect between narrative and evidence, that is a big red ultra-suspicious flag.

Here are a few dozen other issues and facts courtesy of Sam Harris (Making Sense Podcast Transcript: "Can We Pull Back From the Brink") that the reform movement not only ignores, but intensely refuses to consider. Why doesn't BLM's website take a careful look at available statistics regarding policing on its website?  If it did, BLM would find significant support for the claim that police harass Blacks more often than non-Blacks, but they would not find evidence that police use lethal force against Blacks disproportionately.

If the people insisting on reform refuse to first discuss the facts on the ground--a vigorous exploration the facts, pro and con--why should the rest of us--the country at large--trust that movement?

Here is an excerpt from Ali's WSJ article:

Although I am a black African—an immigrant who came to the U.S. freely—I am keenly aware of the hardships and miseries African-Americans have endured for centuries. Slavery, Reconstruction, segregation: I know the history. I know that there is still racial prejudice in America, and that it manifests itself in the aggressive way some police officers handle African-Americans. I know that by measures of wealth, health and education, African-Americans remain on average closer to the bottom of society than to the top. I know, too, that African-American communities have been disproportionately hurt by both Covid-19 and the economic disruption of lockdowns.

Yet when I hear it said that the U.S. is defined above all by racism, when I see books such as Robin DiAngelo’s “White Fragility” top the bestseller list, when I read of educators and journalists being fired for daring to question the orthodoxies of Black Lives Matter—then I feel obliged to speak up.

The problem is that there are people among us who don’t want to figure it out and who have an interest in avoiding workable solutions. They have an obvious political incentive not to solve social problems, because social problems are the basis of their power. That is why, whenever a scholar like Roland Fryer brings new data to the table—showing it’s simply not true that the police disproportionately shoot black people dead—the response is not to read the paper but to try to discredit its author.

I have no objection to the statement “black lives matter.” But the movement that uses that name has a sinister hostility to serious, fact-driven discussion of the problem it purports to care about. Even more sinister is the haste with which academic, media and business leaders abase themselves before it. There will be no resolution of America’s many social problems if free thought and free speech are no longer upheld in our public sphere. Without them, honest deliberation, mutual learning and the American problem-solving ethic are dead.

Continue ReadingHear No Facts, See No Facts.

A Black Police Officer in Portland discusses the behavior and attitudes of protesters.

Jakhary Jackson has been a Portland Police Officer for many years. In this video he shares his experiences getting to know the tactics and attitudes of the protesters. Not all protesters are the same.

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Biologists Heather Heying and Brett Weinstein Dissect Robin DiAngelo’s Personal “White Fragility”

In this 15-minute video, evolutionary biologists Heather Heying and Brett Weinstein dissect Robin DiAngelo’s revealing book, “White Fragility.” Their discussion directly engages with DiAngelo’s central arguments. Heying and Weinstein conclude that DiAngelo’s book is revealing in the sense that DiAngelo (who is white) reveals herself to be an unrepentant racist who is attempting to impose her distorted view of reality on everyone else, especially her core belief that “race” is the single most defining features of our complex human histories and experiences.

Heying states the following at min 5:00: “This book is a hot mess of sloppy scholarship and cherry-picked data, but that’s not actually its biggest flaw.” Heying then reads several passages from “White Fragility.” I almost fell out of my chair as I heard DiAngelo’s words. Listen in at min 5:30 to hear DiAngelo’s words for yourself. Normal people don’t think these thoughts.

I bought a copy of “White Fragility” to make sure that Heying and Weinstein were giving DiAngelo a fair reading. I also base my opinions on my own readings of other work by DiAngelo. Since viewing the above video, I’ve read other passages from “White Fragility” that are similar to those discussed by Heying and Weinstein. Consider this one:

For example, I was invited to the retirement party of a white friend. The party was a pot-luck picnic held in a public park. As I walked down the slope toward the picnic shelters, I noticed two parties going on side by side. One gathering was primarily composed of white people, and the other appeared to be all black people. I experienced a sense of disequilibrium as I approached and had to choose which party was my friend’s. I felt a mild sense of anxiety as I considered that I might have to enter the all-black group, then mild relief as I realized that my friend was in the other group. This relief was amplified as I thought that I might have mistakenly walked over to the black party!
[DiAngelo, Robin J.. White Fragility (p. 53). Beacon Press. Kindle Edition.]

Here’s another:

Indeed, throughout my life, I have been warned that I should avoid situations in which I might be a racial minority. These situations are often presented as scary, dangerous, or “sketchy.”
[DiAngelo, Robin J.. White Fragility (p. 53). Beacon Press. Kindle Edition.]

It seems that DiAngelo needs to spend more time getting comfortable around Black people. That has been an early and recurring thought in my mind.

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The Day I Received a “D” on my College Paper on “Communism”

Events of the day are reminding me of the day I received a "D" on a college paper. The subject was "Communism."  I was attending the University of Missouri- St. Louis at the time, back in 1977. I was taking a class on "Communism," because I decided that it important to be knowledgeable about a political theory that I often heard about, but didn't understand. The class was taught by three teachers. One of them indicated that she was, in no uncertain terms, "a communist." I was a straight A student at UMSL; I mention this only because it provides context to this story. I should also mention that I enjoyed the class. It stimulated me to think. Reading the actual words of Karl Marx helped me to appreciate that he had genuine passionate concerns for the mistreatment of workers. He worked hard to construct what he believed to be a better political system to protect workers.

The "Communist" teacher assigned a reading and required us to write a paper, which I did. I expressed my concerns that a communist system, though well-intentioned, would not work because it didn't provide some necessary incentives. It was a short paper, about 6 or 7 pages. I received a "D," with the comment that I didn't show that I understood Marx, but I could re-write and re-submit. I decided to re-write. I'm not proud of what I then did, but I fully understand why.  For my re-write I handed in a glowing uncritical tribute to communism. I still have the rewrite and one of my ending sentences was this: "The way of communism, for Marx, presents the opportunity of a better life for the individual and for society as a whole." This same teacher gave me an "A-" on this rewrite, with this comment: Why has no communist society been able to achieve what Marx proposed?" I was tempted to respond: "For that answer see my FIRST paper!" I didn't respond, though. I moved on, tarnished by my intellectual dishonesty.

This turned out to be a formative experience for me. I sometimes think of this bad grade when I hear of students and teachers who are being chilled or reprimanded for asking sincere questions, positing hard-to-hear facts or formulating arguments against any form of orthodoxy or ideology. If we don't allow free speech in classrooms, including the free expression of views that some people consider unpopular or even offensive, we will turn our classrooms into churches. I am well-tuned to detect oppressive religious dogma that parades in intellectual clothing. I spent much of my childhood blunting my well-intentioned father's attempts to save my soul by urging me to say absurd things.  I never gave in, and my upbringing helped to forge me into the analytical and skeptical person that I am. I embrace free speech and critical skepticism as an important way to understand things that confuse me, and I've often stayed the course as others get angry with me instead of discussing facts and opinions that they consider "dangerous." Hence, the name of my website, "Dangerous Intersection." As Carl Sagan wrote: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."  Indeed.

The willingness to grapple with threatening ideas is strong good medicine for developing the kinds of human beings who I trust. Uncritically adopting a slogan or a platitude is not the same thing as thinking and doing this should never be tolerated as "education."  It is also important to make sure that everyone speaks up because the otherwise chilled speech might be the majority opinion of the group. Or it might be a small minority opinion which will someday become revered as great wisdom. Once we are well-informed, all of us need to speak up, especially when it seems scary. It's for these reasons that I wrote this post on the classic social science experiments of Soloman Asch: "Why you need to be the one to speak up." It's for this reason that I have been hammering on free speech issues of late.

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