An Alternate Look At The Way Things Did Not Go

Alternate history is a subset of science fiction. Stories and novels of this sort have been written for a long time, but in the last three decades or so the form has come into its own. Many of them are playful What-Ifs that look at how things might have gone had a detail or two gone differently. They are then excuses for adventure or thriller plots that quite often have little real poignance, not least because often the point of departure for the changed history is quite unlikely.

The best ones, however, play with changes that actually might have happened given just a nudge in one direction or the other, and the unfolding drama gives a glimpse of worlds that could easily have come about, often forbidding, thoroughly cautionary. We tend to assume, unconsciously at least, that things work out for the best, even when there is evidence to the contrary. An understandable approach to life given the limit power any of possess to effect events, change the course of history, or otherwise fight perceived inevitabilities. But unlike in fiction, it is rarely up to one person to fight evil or correct wrongs. It is a communal responsibility and the only tool we possess collectively is the wisdom accrued over time from which we might draw clues what to do.

Word War II provides a wellspring of speculation on what might have been done differently if. It seems occasionally that the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Seen purely from a military standpoint, perhaps so. For all its formidable abilities, Nazi Germany was ultimately limited by available resources, something certain generals tried to address on multiple occasions but ultimately failed to successfully repair. But politically? The world at the time offered faint comfort to those who thought the democracies could win in a toe-to-toe fight with the tyrants.

Allow me, then, to recommend a trilogy of novels that represent the better aspects of alternate history and effectively restore the chilling uncertainties of those times.

[more . . . ]

Continue ReadingAn Alternate Look At The Way Things Did Not Go

South Africa’s rape problem

Until I read this BBC article, I had no idea the extent to which South Africa has a problem with rape. One out of every four girls in South Africa will be raped before she gets to be 16 years of age:

It is a fact that a woman born in South Africa has a greater chance of being raped, than learning how to read . . . The majority of the victims are 12 years old or younger. Many of the perpetrators are themselves children . . . Sexual violence pervades society, with one of the highest reported rates of rape in the world, and an alarmingly high incidence of domestic violence and child abuse.
The article indicates that many of the rape victims are babies. It is an utterly horrible situation.

Continue ReadingSouth Africa’s rape problem

Celebrity nontheists

I hadn't read a list of prominent nontheists (atheists, agnostics and other religious skeptics) for awhile. Here's a recently updated list with lots of prominent names. Here's another. Both of these lists include background information regarding each name on the list. Some famous contemporary atheists, agnostics and skeptics are: Daniel Radcliffe Bill Maher Pat Tillman Oliver Sacks Bill Gates Omar Sharif Dave Barry Warren Buffet Phil Donahue Katharine Hepburn Angelina Jolie Lance Armstrong This list includes numerous scientists, along with many actors. Noticeably absent are politicians, which brings to mind polls showing that half of Americans would absolutely refuse to vote for any atheist politician. What follows are the percentages of people indicating in 2006 that they would refuse to vote for "a generally well-qualified person for president" on the basis of some characteristic; in parenthesis are the figures for earlier years: Catholic: 4% (1937: 30%) Black: 5% (1958: 63%, 1987: 21%) Jewish: 6% (1937: 47%) Baptist: 6% Woman: 8% Mormon: 17% Muslim: 38% Gay: 37% (1978: 74%) Atheist: 48%

Continue ReadingCelebrity nontheists

The nebulous nuts and bolts of health care reform

How is that "health care reform coming? New York City's Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a savvy businessman with a long and successful career, is skeptical regarding the pending health care reform bills. This is what he had to say on Meet the Press today:

MAYOR BLOOMBERG: You know, if you really want to object to something in this bill, number one, I have asked congressperson after congressperson, not one can explain to me what's in the bill, even in the House version. Certainly not in the other version. And so for them to vote on a bill that they don't understand whatsoever, really, you got to question how--what kind of government we have. Number two, when they talk about bending the curve, as, as the governor said, bending the curve is a flimflam euphemism for increasing costs, but we're going to say we'll do it at slightly lower rate than we would have otherwise.

GOV. PATRICK: That's not what I'm talking about.

MAYOR BLOOMBERG: I understand that. But they are not talking about reducing costs, they're talking about chancing the first derivative.

MR. GREGORY: Slowing it, right.

MAYOR BLOOMBERG: Slowing the growth down. And when you look at where the cost savings are going to be, well, they're going to cut something out of Medicare and Medicaid. Now, anybody that runs for office will tell you, you don't do that.

MR. GREGORY: Right.

MAYOR BLOOMBERG: I mean, the bottom line is it's so politically explosive, it really would be a first time in the history of the world if they ever cut anything out of either of those two programs.

I suspect that based upon the utter inability of any credible knowledgeable person to frankly state the cost of "health care reform," that Americans are in for a rude awakening. Consider the starting point: the terrible financial condition of Medicare. Here's how bad it is:

The present value of unfunded obligations under all parts of Medicare during FY 2007 over a 75-year forecast horizon is approximately $34.0 trillion. In other words, this amount would have to be set aside today such that the principal and interest would cover the shortfall over the next 75 years.

No private non--criminal corporation would submit operating budget this insane. Yet this is the type of program that we have come to expect from Congress, and it is based upon scores of accounting tricks. These sorts of tricks and traps are exactly what has been alleged about the current proposals for "health care reform." Consider the arguments articulated in the November 13, 2009 issue of Reason.

Congress is using "every budget gimmick in the book" to conceal hundreds of billions in healthcare-reform costs that will lead to "massive tax increases" and higher insurance premiums, one of the country's leading healthcare experts warns.

Early on, Obama originally pledged that his plan would save the typical American family $2,500 a year in healthcare costs. The main purpose of health care reform was "cost control." (see Obama's State of the Union Address from February 2009). Where is this cost control in the current bills? How can we possibly cover tens of millions of people who can't otherwise afford coverage, yet save lots of money for those who are paying their way? Both of the current proposals both depend on a government-funded free-market program administered by for-profit insurance companies. Paul Krugman has argued, however, that the free market doesn't work regarding health care.

[Y]ou don’t know when or whether you’ll need care — but if you do, the care can be extremely expensive. The big bucks are in triple coronary bypass surgery, not routine visits to the doctor’s office; and very, very few people can afford to pay major medical costs out of pocket. This tells you right away that health care can’t be sold like bread. It must be largely paid for by some kind of insurance. And this in turn means that someone other than the patient ends up making decisions about what to buy. Consumer choice is nonsense when it comes to health care. And you can’t just trust insurance companies either — they’re not in business for their health, or yours.

The second thing about health care is that it’s complicated, and you can’t rely on experience or comparison shopping.. . .

We are a country filled with people who abuse their bodies and then depend upon the health care system's expensive treatment. The annual cost of obesity alone in the U.S. is $200 Billion. In fact, we spend less than one percent of total health care spending on prevention. Where is the "stick" (or the "carrot") in the current proposals that will actually make obese, chain-smoking and otherwise reckless Americans change their wasteful and destructive ways? These are my concerns about the current proposals. Well, those concerns and these and these and these . And now we have the business-savvy mayor of NY stating that he has yet to find a member of Congress who understands how the current proposals would really work. And we have a Congress with a history of not actually dealing with fiscal catastrophe, but only putting it off for a few years. We have a system that has yet to explain how it will force Americans to live healthier life styles, in order to save that money. We have competing 2,000 page proposals loaded with lots of stuff that will only be revealed AFTER "reform" is passed. I can already hear it: "We didn't catch that obscure language inserted by [financially interested corporation] that will cost taxpayers an additional $40 Billion every year"). What sustains the momentum is that we will purportedly be insuring thirty million more people, even though it is not clear what we will be giving up in order to do that. Things that motivate the idea of "health care reform" are some low-hanging fruit such portability and restrictions on denying coverage for pre-existing conditions. I've advocated that we should pass laws regarding these obviously needed measures separately, so that we can then really look carefully at the rest of the proposal separately, to just it on its own merits, if we can cut through the morass of accounting gymnastics that apparently serve as the backbone of most of the package. Another thing that motivates passing "health care reform" is the name of the legislation itself. Who could possibly be against "health care reform." A good title does wonders for ramming through indecipherable legislation. This is the current health care "reform," as best I can discern it. It's not looking promising, because it's not looking financially sustainable.

Continue ReadingThe nebulous nuts and bolts of health care reform

Attenuating friendships

At the Chronicles of Higher Education, William Deresiewicz writes about our long-evolving idea of friendship, and it's not a good thing. The more friends we claim to have, the more we are diluting the idea of friendship. Deresiewicz makes many worthy observations along the way, including the suggestion that the classical idea of a committed friendship conflicts with the expanding notions of freedom and equality. When I commit in real-life ways to particular friends, I seem to be acting in an exclusionary way toward all of those people who didn't make the cut. In modern times (says Deresiewicz), deep and committed friendships make some of us uneasy. "At best, intense friendships are something we're expected to grow out of." The comments to the article divided rather evenly into those that found the article poetic and inspiring versus those that found the author to be verbose and "howling at the moon." Reading this piece, I repeatedly thought of Robin Dunbar's research regarding friendship. We are not physiologically capable of having more than 150 good friends at one time. But networking tools certainly seem to expand our contacts (if not our friendships) well beyond 150. How should we really describe those people to whom we are linked up, but not in a deep way or a flesh and blood way? Reading this article, I was also reminded of several friendships that I would absolutely positively claim to be deep meaning friendships, that were started and maintained through the Internet. None of these are mere Facebook "friends"; they each involved substantial amounts of private email and, eventually, some face-to-face discussions. I mention this to fend off any suggestion that "real" friendships should be limited to those relationships maintains primarily through flesh and blood encounters. Here's a bit more from Deresiewicz' thought-provoking article:

If we have 768 "friends," in what sense do we have any? Facebook isn't the whole of contemporary friendship, but it sure looks a lot like its future. Yet Facebook—and MySpace, and Twitter, and whatever we're stampeding for next—are just the latest stages of a long attenuation. They've accelerated the fragmentation of consciousness, but they didn't initiate it. They have reified the idea of universal friendship, but they didn't invent it. In retrospect, it seems inevitable that once we decided to become friends with everyone, we would forget how to be friends with anyone. We may pride ourselves today on our aptitude for friendship—friends, after all, are the only people we have left—but it's not clear that we still even know what it means.

Continue ReadingAttenuating friendships