The real risk of an American dying in a terrorist attack

Comedy Central’s Indecision presents some rather unsurprising statistics that need to be read by every member of Congress. What is an American’s likelihood of dying from a terrorist attack?

According to government statistics, roughly as many Americans are killed annually by unstable furniture and falling televisions as are killed in terrorist attacks.
What else is more dangerous than a terrorist attack? 16 oz. sodas, inconvenience of going through TSA security at an airport (which discourages many people from flying, causing them to die on the highways), use of your bathroom, texting, autoerotic asphyxia, alcohol and tobacco, weather, suicide, hospital infections and doctor errors and stress. One more thing: What is the risk of an American dying in a terrorist attack? Ronald Bailey of Reason suggests a very liberal estimate (an estimate assuming death to be more likely) would be 1 in 1.7 million, and he offers these additional statistics:
Taking these figures into account, a rough calculation suggests that in the last five years, your chances of being killed by a terrorist are about one in 20 million. This compares annual risk of dying in a car accident of 1 in 19,000; drowning in a bathtub at 1 in 800,000; dying in a building fire at 1 in 99,000; or being struck by lightning at 1 in 5,500,000. In other words, in the last five years you were four times more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a terrorist.
This same article indicates that the U.S. spends $400 million dollars per life saved in antiterrorism security measures (cost$1 Trillion since 2001), but this number doesn’t include military expenses by the United States. It's also important to keep in mind that the U.S. spends more on maintaining a military than the rest of the world combined. Perhaps if Americans weren't so afflicted with innumeracy, we could accept the true (miniscule) risk of dying from a terrorist act, and focus on preventing much more likely forms of death. Perhaps we could spend a significant chunk of that "anti-terrorism" money to combat innumeracy.

Continue ReadingThe real risk of an American dying in a terrorist attack

How discriminating are you? With regard to musical tones, that is.

How discriminating are you? With regard to pitch, that is. I have performed music much of my life, and I ended up doing quite well on this 3 minute test (better than 99.4% of those who take it). But I felt like I was guessing on quite a few of these micro intervals. If you think you have a discriminating ear, you might find this test interesting.

Continue ReadingHow discriminating are you? With regard to musical tones, that is.

Perversions in far away places

Check out this description:

The pamphlet, declined for publication with the official Scott expedition reports, commented on the frequency of sexual activity, auto-erotic behaviour, and seemingly aberrant behaviour of young unpaired males and females, including necrophilia, sexual coercion, sexual and physical abuse of chicks and homosexual behavior . . . ."
Now get this.  This paragraph refers to documented behaviors of penguins in Antarctica. And now we have some evidence that necrophilia is "natural," for those who are seeking such a justification.

Continue ReadingPerversions in far away places

Trying to fit big trees into a photograph

My 11-year old daughter and I are on vacation in the San Francisco area. Today we visited Muir Woods, an enchanted grove of coastal redwood trees less than an hour north of San Francisco. Thank you, Teddy Roosevelt, for saving this natural treasure. Today, I worked hard to try to capture the immensity of these trees in a photo. Here's the best I could do:

Continue ReadingTrying to fit big trees into a photograph