I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, or should I say, snow on anyone's parade. The Christmas season can be a terrific opportunity to hear extraordinary music and to catch up with the people we care about. But there is something I'd like to discuss that perplexes me, especially at this time of the year. Those who read this blog know that I am a skeptic and that I don't believe that a divine man named Jesus saved the world. Nor do I think most people who say they believe these things actually believe them, based upon the fact that most people who say they believe in the divinity of Jesus spend very little time learning about the origin of the Bible. Almost none of them take the time to learn Hebrew or Greek, the language used by the earliest manuscripts of writings that they claim to be the direct word of God. Almost none of them pride themselves on being highly informed about the content of what they claim to be the most important book in the world. In short, the behavior of most Believers suggests that they don't deeply believe the things they say they believe about the alleged existence and importance of the man they call Jesus. I don't want to sound too harsh, because this is the Christmas season, and I am well aware that numerous people find inspiration in their religious beliefs and they are motivated by those beliefs to do impressive acts of kindness. Nonetheless, I am on the outside looking in with regard to Christian religious beliefs. From my viewpoint, it is difficult to understand how anyone could claim to believe that a man who was actually God was born at all. One reason I have such trouble is that I don't see the Christmas story as a single belief. Rather, I see "it" as a nested hierarchy of highly improbable events. In order to believe the Christmas story, one must actually believe a long series of events that depend upon each other in order for the entire story to be true. Let's start at the beginning. Did the universe always exist (perhaps as a pulsing series of big bangs or as a huge mostly invisible network of multi-dimensional strings that occasionally bud in the form of individual universi)? Or was there a first clause of the universe, a prime mover? I find the first option to be much more likely, but I'll admit that it's possible that there could have been a first cause, some sort of entity that created the universe such that before the creation, there was no universe at all. What are the odds that there was some sort of entity that created the universe? I would think it highly unlikely, about as unlikely as the Norse claim that four dwarves held up Ymir's skull to create the heavens, or any of the creation myths of any of the other religions of the world. Nonetheless, let's assume that it's 60% likely that the universe had a first cause. We're still a long way from locking down the entire Christmas story. The next step is considering the likelihood that the creator of the universe is sentient (conscious), as opposed to the insentient "God" of Einstein. [more . . . ]