I mostly agree with Eric Weinstein about Trump. Weinstein recently tweeted his position:

I will say it simply. @realDonaldTrump and @JDVance have the opportunity to change everything. Everything depends on @realDonaldTrump’s use of this historic opportunity. This could restore America. Or tank it.

To say it my way, this is the highest *variance* presidency of my lifetime. As bad as Kamala was (and you know my position) she was probably lower variance. Lower variance and much lower mean.

This is potentially amazing because the sky is the limit. Given the chance, I will help anyone to use this mandate to make it the best presidency it can possibly be. But you can’t ask me to close my eyes to the risks. I’m just not that guy. Never was and never will be. This is incredibly dangerous as we are seated at the high stakes table now.

I don’t understand Americans who want Trump to fail. I think he is a brilliant man which I have always said. But he is also incredibly divisive. I think he truly loves his country and wants the best for it. He is also very dangerous and unpredictable. And he NEEDS that unpredictability to survive. He is very strong. And perhaps he needs to be dangerous. I could be persuaded that this is necessary.

He learned last time that you need an sea of people to govern. He won’t make that mistake again.

Am I optimistic? Yes. Very. Am I deeply deeply worried? Absolutely. Very."

Again in my language: stop focusing on the mean. If I absolutely had to say what I am feeling, with a gun to my head I might say this is high mean, high variance, negative skew, high kurtosis.

As a weather report: this is a low confidence forecast of an amazing spring day with a bit more than a slight chance of apocalypse.

I know “But Bruh, Are you MAGA?” No. This is why we have more than one moment of a distribution and not a simple binary. MAGA is a broad coalition that seats some people who I view as “unworkable”. I can’t personally endorse a movement that tolerates that element in order to win. But I get along with plenty of MAGA People. And generally they get me. Most of them like me, understand me from podcasting, and don’t need me wearing a hat.

Lastly, you have no idea how desperately I want this to work. And it could be amazing. I think that is likely but with very weak conviction. As above.

Here to help, This is more or less what I predicted. Nothing has changed. And word to the wise: Mind the time *before* the inauguration. Don’t take your eye off the ball prematurely.