Addicted to Risk without a backup plan

The BP oil spill was one of the more recent examples of overconfidence, according to Naomi Klein. Also consider the financial collapse and overconfidence that was rampant prior to our military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Klein states that we are addicted to risk. Instead of asking how how to proceed prudently, we ask bizarre questions such as these: - What is the latest possible moment we can act to remedy a major problem? - How much hotter can we let the planet get? These questions are being driven by economists rather than scientists. Greed and hubris are factors in this mindset, and fear of failure seems to be lacking. Klein gives the illustration of a 35-year old banker who is taking home more than 100 times as much salary as a brain surgeon. That banker seeks a narrative other than thinking that he is a good scammer who gamed the system. He will likely start believing that he is a genius and that he is somehow contributing to society, or at least not hurting others. But he does absorb the narrative that he is a genius, and being told that you are a genius who is born to rule is a "peril of privilege." People in these positions adopt traditional narratives that enhance their feelings of superiority over others. These archetypal narratives include the following "fairy tales": - Newly discovered frontier and conquering pioneer; - Manifest destiny; - Endless growth; - We don't need to change our lifestyles; - Apocalypse and salvation. We will be "saved" in the end with technology. They also embrace deep narratives that Mother Nature is there to be conquered and yet she is always forgiving and resilient; there will always be a frontier. Klein argues that these are lies, and we are running up against severe physical limits. We have already exhausted easy energy and we are now into the era of "extreme energy." This means we ravaging the earth to get to dramatically diminishing returns. Exhibit A is the tar sand region of Canada which, to produce oil, requires ripping away the trees and contaminating huge amounts of water. Vast landscapes are being decimated (see the video for some of these dramatic images). It takes three times as much energy to produce a barrel of oil this was as it takes to produce conventional oil. In terms of greenhouse gases, this is "insanity." This is how civilizations "commit suicide." Klein states that we need new heroes with new kinds of stories that will replace the current linear narrative of endless growth with circular narratives of what goes around comes around.

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9/11 as an excuse to say stupid things.

I work in a big office building located in downtown St. Louis, the "Bank of America Plaza." Early this week, I was interviewed for a newspaper article, and I needed an updated photo of myself. A coworker offered to snap that photo using a small digital camera. We want down the elevator to the first floor public lobby of the building, at street level, where we found a large neutral colored wall that we could use as a backdrop for my photo. I stood in front of the wall and my coworker stood about 10 feet away from me. As she took a photo of me a security guard suddenly approached. Me: "In the lobby? In a public lobby?" Guard: "You may not take any pictures here. It’s because of 9/11 and homeland security." Me: "I understand that your employers have instructed you to say these sorts of things, but what you have just told me is about the most idiotic thing I've ever heard. My coworker is simply trying to take a picture of me in front of a wall." Guard: "Sir you cannot continue doing this. You will need to take pictures elsewhere." We left. Apparently, taking pictures of me threatens the United States. Or maybe the threat was taking a picture of the wall behind me. Certainly, the guard made it clear that the building owners prohibit any sort of photos in the lobby. We walked across the street and threatened the United States by taking my photo inside the lobby of a office building across the street, where friendly security guards don’t appreciate the risk of what we were doing. Instead, they naively laughed at our stories about security guards in my own office building.

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7 billion reasons to consider 7 billion

In the three minutes it takes to view this excellent National Geographic video on the rapidly increasing numbers of people, earth's population will increase by 170 people. That explosive growth has real life ramifications that will affect our quality of life: I applaud the willingness of National Geographic to discuss this critically important issue. Many people and organizations shy away from the topic of the earth's carrying capacity. Another organization dedicated to making sure that we don't shy away from the topic is Global Population Speak Out (GPSO). Here is GPSO mission statement:

The Population Institute, based in Washington DC, is seeking prominent scientists, scholars, and other concerned citizens to participate in this international program of action. The mission is to raise awareness in the global community about the current size and growth of the human population on Earth -- and to highlight the challenges this size and growth present as we attempt to achieve planet-scale ecological sustainability.

I am proud to say that I am Pledger #36.

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On tipping points and feedback loops

Malcolm Gladwell popularized the concept of tipping points with his book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. Although his book was mainly dealing with pop-psychology, the utility of the term has led to its spread throughout several disciplines. But the arena where it has really come into its own is the environmental movement. Scientists have struggled to find a way to explain complex environmental changes in ways that will make them comprehensible to the layperson. The concept of tipping points is just such an explanation. Wikipedia gives us an example of how tipping points can simplify the understanding of climate changes:

A climate tipping point is a point when global climate changes from one stable state to another stable state, in a similar manner to a wine glass tipping over. After the tipping point has been passed, a transition to a new state occurs. The tipping event may be irreversible, comparable to wine spilling from the glass—standing up the glass will not put the wine back.
In much the same way as you can gradually tip a wineglass to the side, climactic or ecological changes can accumulate slowly. Once the tipping point is reached however, gravity or some analogous force takes control and the situation can change rapidly.

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