How Careful are Americans in the Age of Covid-19? How we Engage in Other Activities Serve as Proxies

"Feb. 29, 2020: 1st death reported in United States."

I'll use that date as my start date. Today is Day 87 of COVID-19 here in the U.S., and it is bringing out the best and the worst of Americans. Behold who we are! Lots of careful people mixed in with others willing to take risks. On average, it appears that individual Americans are responding to COVID-19 with the same degree of care that we display when we A) drive our cars, B) take care of our bodies C) nurture the environment and D) fill our brains with TV shows.

Why would we expect anything different?

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Masks and Distance: The Limits of Cheap Political Virtue Signaling

Today on FB, I displayed this photo of Joe Biden and made this comment:

I'm all for wearing a mask when you need to be near other people, but really? A Twitter comment (see the comments here): "Virtue Signalling knows no distance."

The post drew considerable criticism that caused me to better explain my concern. I did that as an addendum to the original post, as follows:

Biden's job is to either have Trump voters switch over to him or to convince them that they don't care enough  that they simply won't vote for Trump (I know several Republicans of this latter type). I don't want this election to be a repeat of Michael Dukakis riding in the tank. I fear that this type of image is going to be repeatedly and effectively exploited by Republicans to make the argument that Biden is not a strong and courageous leader.

The CDC has repeated and strongly warned that we maintain a distance of six feet from other people. CDC further "advises" that people wear homemade masks.  I fear that this type of image of Biden sitting 15 feet apart AND wearing a mask is going to be repeatedly and effectively exploited by Republicans to make the argument that Biden is not a strong and courageous leader.  There are many other images that will be used by Trump, including images where Biden and his wife are wearing masks where no other people are nearby.

Those of us who have the strength and courage to unplug from the political matrix instantly realize that this exploit that will certainly be used by Trump will be effective when compared to "fearless" images of Trump NOT wearing a mask. Who do you want as the leader of the United States? The man who worries about invisible germs that kill only 1% of people?  Or a courageous man like Trump?  That will be the argument and (based on the rhetoric of the clamor-to-reopen-crowd) this argument will siphon votes away from Biden.

Biden will get the votes from his base, more or less, no matter what he does between now and November, despite his many flaws. Further, his base will forgive him the "sin" of not wearing a mask while sitting 15 feet from one other person outdoors. And, as one of the commenters on my FB page indicated, Biden took off his mask for the actual interview. Good. But this image will live on in isolation from the fact that he took off the mask to conduct the interview, as will thousands of similar images of Biden. Unfortunately, there are real consequences in the balance. Should Biden be 99% safe or 99.99999% safe? It's not a decision for me to make, but while prudent mask-wearing is absolutely a good thing, mask-wearing that looks weak and paranoid will hurt Biden's chances in November. It is my concern that the cheap version of virtue signaling suggested by this image will be quickly sniffed and identified as such by all voters who aren't already for Biden. Many of the people who are already strongly for Biden might will be oblivious to this serious problem.

I'll add one more thing. We need to be sensitive to the difference between cheap virtue signaling and expensive virtue signaling. What looks impressive when done by people we believe to be on our team can look terrible when done by members of the other team. There a lot going on under the hood and it includes confirmation bias and displaying of "badges" of in-group membership.  This difference is explained by Geoffrey Miller in this definitional section from his new book, Virtue Signaling: Essays on Darwinian Politics and Free Speech (2020):

We all virtue signal. I virtue signal; you virtue signal; we virtue signal. And those guys over there, in that political tribe we don’t like – they especially virtue signal. (Just as they believe that we do.) Let’s not pretend otherwise. We are humans, and humans love to show off our moral virtues, ethical principles, religious convictions, political attitudes, and lifestyle choices to other humans. We have virtue signaled ever since prehistoric big-game hunters shared meat with the hungry folks in their clan, or cared for kids who weren’t their own.

There’s virtue signaling, and then there’s virtue signaling. This book is about both kinds. On the one hand, there’s what economists call ‘cheap talk:’ signals that are cheap, quick, and easy to fake, and that aren’t accurate cues of underlying traits or values. When partisans on social media talk about political virtue signaling by the other side, they’re usually referring to this sort of cheap talk. Virtue signaling as cheap talk includes bumper stickers, yard signs, social media posts, and dating app profiles. The main pressure that keeps cheap talk honest is social: the costs of stigma and ostracism by people who don’t agree with your signal. Wearing a ‘Make America Great Again’ hat doesn’t cost much money, but it can cost you friendships. On the other hand, there’s virtue signaling that’s costly, long-term, and hard to fake, and that can serve as a very reliable indicator of underlying traits and values. This can include volunteering for months on political campaigns, making large, verifiable donations to causes, or giving up a lucrative medical practice to work for Doctors Without Borders in Haiti or New Guinea. The key to reliable virtue signals is that you simply couldn’t stand to produce them, over the long term, if you didn’t genuinely care about the cause.

[V]irtue signaling can … be the worst of human instincts. It drives most of partisan politics, especially on social media. It drives the demands to censor, fire, cancel, and ostracize people who express the wrong opinions. It drives moral panics about satanic ritual abuse, ‘rape culture,’ and ‘porn addiction.’ It drives white nationalists to run over protesters. It drives antifa to beat up journalists. … Some of this is cheap talk, but some of it is reliable signaling. What distinguishes good virtue signaling from bad virtue signaling isn’t just the reliability of the signal. It’s the actual real-world effects on sentient beings, societies, and civilizations.

[I attempted to find the source of the photo, which I spotted on Twitter, but was unsuccessful]

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Contemplating the COVID-19 Pool Party at Lake of the Ozarks

This image of the COVID-19 era pool party in Missouri's Lake of the Ozarks is deservedly viral.These are stunning and disturbing images for me.

I'm struggling to get inside of the heads of these people. Are they extroverts suffering from living in isolation? Are they simply in denial of the danger? Are they innumerate, not appreciating the meaning of exponential? Are they succumbing to incessant pressures of their in-group. to conform. Are they doing expensive signaling to impress each other? Have they attempted any sort of moral calculus in their minds, or have they simply declared themselves to be mini-Fiefdoms, self-legislating that it's time to move on, the consequences be damned? I'm working hard to pull myself out of any Manichean matrix that might tempt me to see the world in terms of "good" people and "bad" people.

I prefer to think of these people are ordinary flawed people, just like the rest of us, except that they are making a bad decision here.

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COVID-19 Pulls Back the Curtain on Who We Are

"Feb. 29, 2020: 1st death reported in United States." OK, I'll use that date as my start date.

Today is Day 87 of COVID-19 here in the U.S., and it is bringing out the best and the worst of Americans. Behold who we are!

On average, it appears that we are responding to COVID-19 with the same degree of care that we display when we A) drive our cars, B) take care of our bodies C) nurture the environment and D) fill our brains with TV shows. Why would we expect anything different?

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Central Park Confrontation Provokes Thoughts on Adequate Apologies

Hmmm. How would I grade these two actors?

I'd give Mr. Christian Cooper, dedicated birder, an A+. I'd give Ms. Amy Cooper (no relation), an entitled, leash-ordinance-violating, racist, hostile, COVID-endangering financial analyst, an F. It's not fun to see anyone fall so far and so hard, but I was relieved that Mr. Cooper kept his cool and kept the recording rolling to protect himself. The world now knows exactly what happened that day in Central Park. There are many good safety reasons people should keep their dogs on leashes. It's too bad that Mr. Cooper had to ask Ms. Cooper to obey the law.

Reading this article is making me think of what makes for an adequate apology. When are mere words enough?  It seems like we need some expensive signaling here, something much more than words.

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