A credible U.S. position on the uncertainty about our future oil supply
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released a detailed yet accessible report addressing future energy supplies in the U.S. The title of the report is Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production.
Here are some of the report’s conclusions:
Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040.
In the United States, alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges that could impede their ability to mitigate the consequences of a peak and decline in oil production, unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear. For example, although corn ethanol production is technically feasible, it is more expensive to produce than gasoline and will require costly investments in infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage tanks, before it can become widely available as a primary fuel. Key alternative technologies currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products, and the Department of Energy (DOE) projects that even by 2015, they could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption. In such circumstances, an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could cause a worldwide recession.
The report also contains a section on Peak Oil: Oil Production Has Peaked in the United States and Most Other Countries Outside the Middle East. Here is an excerpt:
…According to IEA, most countries outside the Middle East have reached their peak in conventional oil production, or