More on the Dunning-Kruger cognitive bias

Over the past year, this website has published several posts discussing the Dunning-Kruger cognitive bias, and for good reason. The Dunning-Kruger effect is the cognitive bias that naturally comes to mind whenever one thinks of America's tumultuous politics. It especially comes to mind when one considers the rise of the American "Tea Party," notable for producing politicians who are factually clueless but oblivious to this fact. That combination is the essential nature of the Dunning Kruger phenomenon, as described by Wikipedia:

Kruger and Dunning noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis. Kruger and Dunning proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill; 2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others; 3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; 4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they can be trained to substantially improve.

I thought it worthwhile to raise this topic of Dunning-Kruger again tonight, and to further note that in 2005, David Dunning published a book on the Dunning-Kruger effect called Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself. You can read the first chapter of Dunning's book online at this link. Here are a few excerpts: [From page 8]

The notions people have about their skills and knowledge are far from perfect indicators of their actual proficiency… Impressions of skill are somehow decoupled from reality-perhaps not completely but tune extent that is surprising.… People who are incompetent are often not in a position to know that they are incompetent. Judgment of self is an intrinsically difficult task, and the incompetent just do not have the tools necessary to meet this difficult challenge, nor should the rest of us expect them to.

[Space 12]

In 1914, Babinski coined the term now used, anosognosia, to describe these cases in which people are physically or neurologically impaired, sometimes grossly, yet fail to recognize the death or even the existence of their impairment… I take the notion osanosognosia and transfer it, by analogy, from the neurological and physical realm to the cognitive and psychological one.

[Page 13]

It is not that people performing poorly fail to recognize their incompetence. Instead, our argument is that people performing poorly cannot be expected to recognize their ineptitude. They are simply not in a position to know that they are doing badly. The ability to recognize the death of their inadequacies is beyond them.… They are doubly cursed: in many areas of life, the skills necessary to produce competent responses to the outside world are also the exact same skills needed to recognize whether one acted competently. . . the skills needed to perform the cognitive task . . . are the same exact ones necessary for metacognitive (judging the response).

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Democracy loses the election

At Truthdig, Amy Goodman mourned the biggest loser during the election day this week: democracy.

As the 2010 elections come to a close, the biggest winner of all remains undeclared: the broadcasters. The biggest loser: democracy. These were the most expensive midterm elections in U.S. history, costing close to $4 billion, $3 billion of which went to advertising. What if ad time were free? We hear no debate about this, because the media corporations are making such a killing by selling campaign ads. Yet the broadcasters are using public airwaves. I am reminded of the 1999 book by media scholar Robert McChesney, “Rich Media, Poor Democracy.” In it, he writes, “Broadcasters have little incentive to cover candidates, because it is in their interest to force them to publicize their campaigns.” . . .
Goodman points out that the airwaves belong to the public, yet they are being used for reaping huge profits that create a financial bar to candidates who merely have good ideas.
The place where we should debate this is in the major media, where most Americans get their news. But the television and radio broadcasters have a profound conflict of interest. Their profits take precedence over our democratic process. You very likely won’t hear this discussed on the Sunday-morning talk shows.

Continue ReadingDemocracy loses the election

Negative interest rates are here

Step right up and buy a bong that pays negative interest:

The U.S. government, for the first time, has sold bonds that have a negative rate of return, as investors seek protection against the threat of inflation. The government sold $10 billion worth of the bonds Monday. Investors paid $105.50 for every $100 of bonds they bought, effectively agreeing to pay the government for the privilege of lending it money.

Continue ReadingNegative interest rates are here

And the sign said

I've noticed quite a few signs around town lately. First, here's an emotionally-charged set of signs that might save lives. First I noticed a terribly wrecked car in the center of the campus of St. Louis University (I sometimes ride a bicycle through this area on the way to work): When you look closer, you'll see why this car was towed here: Two people were recently killed while driving this car. Once again, I am reminded that when I'm traveling in a car, it is likely the most dangerous thing I will ever be doing. There are other serious signs, of course. Here's one I spotted in a trending part of town. You see, this manly man believes that Jesus once visited the Americas. This poster is just down the street from the Roman Catholic Cathedral where, based on my experience being raised as a Catholic, most of the parishioners don't understand the most basic teachings of the church, and don't really care that they don't understand. Yet they disparage the Mormons and vice-versa. What other signs did I notice? How about this sign warning about the great danger presented by this parking lot gate? Click on this image, and you'll see that these gates are terribly dangerous, even though it doesn't seem so to me. It's especially hard to understand this warning when the bottom of the gate is padded with foam. In the photo above, you can see the entire apparatus. I now hesitant to go near it. But this gate is not a fluke. Here's another parking gate I noticed this week, this one located at the St. Louis County Circuit Court: [More . . . ]

Continue ReadingAnd the sign said

Quotes for a Sunday evening

I've really been stretched this weekend. One big distraction is upgrading the family's main computer from Windows XP to Windows 7. The new product is well-rated, but the upgrade can take many (as in more than 12) hours. I'm working on many ideas, but I haven't had a chance to write them up yet. Therefore, I will turn once again to the terrific quote collection of on of our readers, Mike Baker: "Do not save your loving speeches, For your friends till they are dead; Do not write them on their tombstones, Speak them rather now instead." Anna Cummins "Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed." ~ Mahatma Gandhi "He who is greedy is always in want." ~ Horace "The road to Auschwitz was built by hate, but paved with indifference." ~ British historian Ian Kershaw "The one permanent emotion of the inferior man is fear—fear of the unknown, the complex, the inexplicable. What he wants beyond everything else is safety." ~ H. L. Mencken, American journalist and humorist (1880-1956) "With numbing regularity good people were seen to knuckle under the demands of authority and perform actions that were callous and severe. Men who are in everyday life responsible and decent were seduced by the trappings of authority, by the control of their perceptions, and by the uncritical acceptance of the experimenter's definition of the situation, into performing harsh acts. A substantial proportion of people do what they are told to do, irrespective of the content of the act and without limitations of conscience, so long as they perceive that the command comes from a legitimate authority." ~ Stanley Milgram , 1965 "The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -- it is the illusion of knowledge." ~Daniel Boorstin "All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them." ~ Galileo Italian astronomer & physicist (1564 - 1642) "Long experience has taught me this about the status of mankind with regard to matters requiring thought: the less people know and understand about them, the more positively they attempt to argue concerning them, while on the other hand to know and understand a multitude of things renders men cautious in passing judgment upon anything new. ~ Galileo [More . . . ]

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