Fascinating post quoting Elon Musk on the efficiency of the brain and the potential efficiency of AI:

Well, we have a clear example of efficient power, efficient compute, which is the human brain. Our brains use about 20 watts of power, and only about 10 watts is higher brain function. Half of it is just housekeeping, keeping your heart going and breathing.

So you’ve got maybe 10 watts of higher brain function in a human, and we’ve managed to build civilization with 10 watts of a biological computer. Given that humans are capable of inventing general relativity and quantum mechanics, inventing aircraft, lasers, the internet, and discovering physics with a 10-watt meat computer, there’s clearly a massive opportunity for improving the efficiency of AI compute. Right now, even a hundred-megawatt or gigawatt AI supercomputer can’t do everything a human can do. But we already have the proof that true intelligence can emerge from just 10 watts. That should lead you to one conclusion, AI can get a lot more efficient.