Citing Accurate Statistics Can be Harmful to Your Career: The Cases of Zac Kriegman and Roland Fryer

Zac Kriegman lost his job at Thomson Reuters for the sin of doing his job well.  Citing accurate statistics collided with the prevailing Black Lives Matter narrative regarding the extent of police violence against unarmed blacks.  Unfortunate for his career, Kriegman also concluded that the Ferguson Effect stemming from the BLM protests and riots has resulted in the deaths of thousands of black men.

[Please assume that wherever I use the terms “black” or “white” that I am using these terms in scare quotes.  I am asking readers to make this assumption because I am convinced that concept of “race” is illusory and pernicious and should be eliminated from all discourse. I am quite aware that people come in various shapes and shades of skin color, but none of this is evidence supporting a belief in “race.”  I have been convinced that this is the proper course based on writings of Sheena Mason, Thomas Chatterton Williams, Zuby (and see here), Kmele Foster, Coleman Hughes, Angel Eduardo and Inaya Folarin Iman.  In an earlier post, I characterized the belief in “race” to be as absurd as the belief in astrology.]

What follows is an excerpt from Kriegman’s article at Common Sense, “I Criticized BLM. Then I Was Fired: The data about police shootings just didn’t add up, but no one at Thomson Reuters wanted to hear it.”:

I had been following the academic research on BLM for years (for example, here, here, here and here), and I had come to the conclusion that the claim upon which the whole movement rested—that police more readily shoot black people—was false.

The data was unequivocal. It showed that, if anything, police were slightly less likely to use lethal force against black suspects than white ones.

Statistics from the most complete database of police shootings (compiled by The Washington Post) indicate that, over the last five years, police have fatally shot 39 percent more unarmed whites than blacks. Because there are roughly six times as many white Americans as black Americans, that figure should be closer to 600 percent, BLM activists (and their allies in legacy media) insist. The fact that it’s not—that there’s more than a 500-percentage point gap between reality and expectation—is, they say, evidence of the bias of police departments across the United States.

But it’s more complicated than that. Police are authorized to use lethal force only when they believe a suspect poses a grave danger of harming others. So, when it comes to measuring cops’ racial attitudes, it’s important that we compare apples and apples: Black suspects who pose a grave danger and white suspects who do the same.

Unfortunately, we don’t have reliable data on the racial makeup of dangerous suspects, but we do have a good proxy: The number of people in each group who murder police officers.

According to calculations (published by Patrick Frey, Deputy District Attorney for Los Angeles County) based on FBI data, black Americans account for 37 percent of those who murder police officers, and 34 percent of the unarmed suspects killed by police. Meanwhile, whites make up 42.7 percent of cop killers and 42 percent of the unarmed suspects shot by police—meaning whites are killed by police at a 7 percent higher rate than blacks.

If you broaden the analysis to include armed suspects, the gap is even wider, with whites shot at a 70 percent higher rate than blacks. Other experts in the field concur that, in relation to the number of police officers murdered, whites are shot disproportionately.

There has been only one study that has looked at the rate at which police use lethal force in similar circumstances across racial groups. It was conducted by the wunderkind Harvard economist Roland Fryer, who is black, grew up poor, had his fair share of run-ins with the police and, initially, supported BLM. In 2016, Fryer, hoping to prove the BLM narrative, conducted a rigorous study that controlled for the circumstances of shootings—and was shocked to find that, while blacks and Latinos were likelier than whites to experience some level of police force, they were, if anything, slightly less likely to be shot.

For much more, see Kriegman’s email to Thomson Reuters after his firing. It is titled: “The post that led to my termination.” Here’s an excerpt:

In other words, because Black Lives Matter supporters at Thomson Reuters launched a barrage of racist and abusive attacks on me for criticizing BLM, the company will no longer tolerate any criticism of BLM on the Hub.

This is despite the fact that there are hundreds of posts celebrating BLM on the Hub, including an official Thomson Reuters event series with BLM activists. As it now stands, Thomson Reuters’s policy seems to be that only celebrations, and no criticism, of BLM will be permitted.

Were it not for the fact that the best scholarly research, from the most respected research institutions in the country, shows that BLM spreads falsehoods that have led to the murders of thousands of black people in the most disadvantaged communities, this might be a more understandable position for Thomson Reuters to take.

However, given the evidence of how destructive BLM has been, it is very disturbing that our company’s response to employees launching racist attacks on anyone who criticizes BLM is to silence all criticism of BLM, even while simultaneously running official Thomson Reuters programs that inject pro-BLM political propaganda into the workplace. BLM supporters have successfully used racist and abusive attacks to silence alternative perspectives, end constructive dialogue and achieve complete victory.

See also Christopher Rufo’s follow-up article at City Journal, “The Price of Dissent.” An Excerpt:

Kriegman addresses the policy implications of “de-policing.” Contrary to Reuters’s sometimes glowing coverage of the “defund the police” movement, Kriegman makes the case that de-policing, whether it occurs because of the “Ferguson Effect” or because of deliberate policy choices, has led to disaster for black communities. His argument, building on the work of City Journal’s Heather Mac Donald, follows this logic: after high-profile police-involved killings, such as those involving Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Black Lives Matter movement and the media have demonized police departments and caused many officers to reduce proactive policing measures and to pull back from situations out of fear that they might need to use force. The result, according to data from a range of academic literature, is an increase in crime and violence. Kriegman again cites Fryer, who concluded that the Ferguson Effect led to 900 excess murders in five cities he considered, and the University of Utah’s Paul G. Cassell, who found that the “Minneapolis Effect” led to 1,520 excess murders in the United States. Thus, BLM’s signature policy solution—“defund the police”—would likely lead to incredible carnage in black communities.

Consider listening to Coleman Hughes’ podcast interview with Zac Kriegman. Title: “BLM: The Revolution Will Not be Criticized.”

[Added June 26 2022]

From “Why Harvard’s canceling of Roland Fryer matters,” by Robert Evans.

Fryer’s work is a perfect embodiment of what academic research should be: identifying issues of great importance to society, developing a hypothesis and testing it through rigorous empirical analysis, following the data wherever it leads, no matter how unpleasant or unpopular, and pugnaciously defending the results. He would seem like the quintessential Harvard man—in a different time, perhaps.

Fryer’s work calls us to a simple truth: that the noblest paths to success and dignity are found in truth and accountability. This is a maxim that all of us would do well to adopt. But the question is, as Fryer would say, “Do we have the courage to do it?”

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Erich Vieth

Erich Vieth is an attorney focusing on civil rights (including First Amendment), consumer law litigation and appellate practice. At this website often writes about censorship, corporate news media corruption and cognitive science. He is also a working musician, artist and a writer, having founded Dangerous Intersection in 2006. Erich lives in St. Louis, Missouri with his two daughters.

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  1. Avatar of Unknown or Deleted User

    Regardless of the data, it makes sense. If someone breaks the law it’s a policeman’s duty to enforce it. Failure to do so simply lets a criminal run free. Newscasters are always on the lookout for black race news; in fact they thrive on it. It seems not a day goes by where they don’t find at least one “black” scenario to cover. It seems “prolongation” of “racism” is on the local newscasters agenda. It stick out like a sore thumb when there is a lack of real news and they need something to fill their half hour time slot. It’s really quite pathetic.

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