Remember all the people claiming that COVID is like the flu? That is true in the same sense that a week is like a year.
COVID IS Like the Flu, Except that it is Fifty-Two Times Worse
Remember all the people claiming that COVID is like the flu? That is true in the same sense that a week is like a year.
Remember all the people claiming that two-week lockdowns were needed only until we bent the curve? That is true in the same sense that the curve has no end.
We know more today about COVID19 than we did when all of these claims were made. In only one way are COVID9 and this year’s most-prevalent influenza strain the same: each is a mutation of a common cold virus. They are very different in age distribution of death, which impacts the gross number of deaths and the deaths’ impacts. See https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1741-7015-10-162.
For COVID19 in the U.S., the average age at death is the same as the general population’s life expectancy. My initial suspicion is that the current pandemic is culling the population by bringing forward by a matter of months deaths that were already inevitable. For influenza, the death rate for infected infants and toddlers is higher than that of 70-year-olds. Epidemiology is a matter of numbers, not feelings. I am 73 and in poor health. If I catch COVID19 and die a month from now, some will agonize over my death, but those who can separate thinking from feeling understand that the impact of me losing up to a year of future life pales in comparison to my niece’s newborn losing seventy years of her future life.
The use of a single measurement to judge a complex system carries great danger. In another online conversation today on Substack, I replied to a post asking why China was so quick and organized to vaccinate, while we appeared clownish.That uses a measurement of efficiency, which considers elapsed time plus resources consumed. Achieving China’s efficiency came at a cost of as many as 150,000,000 deaths at the hands of authoritarian government in the 20th century.
And, the standard FDA process for approving a new medication, be it vaccination or treatment, is for a private company first to spend $2B+ of its own money over twelve years before the medication is released for public use. In China, the process is far more efficient. A medical lab develops a vaccine, the central government orders it manufactured and administered, and the hoi polloi are told when and where to show up. The Chinese have 150M reasons to obey. The U.S., as with Australia, was settled by dissidents and malcontents. Our submission-to-authority genes are weak, and our “Up Yours” genes are strong. The Federal nature of our governments treat states as sovereigns, and our constitution was written for liberty, not efficiency. But, this is an emergency!!!!! No, it’s a really contagious common cold virus that primarily kills people close to death already. If this sounds cold, then you’re free to disregard it.
U.S. COVID-19 AVOIDABLE INFECTIONS AND DEATHS – 01/13/2021
by Tim Hogan
We and South Korea had our first confirmed COVID-19 cases on January 20, 2020.
We did nothing. S. Korea did everything.
At 8:07 a.m. CDT, 01/13/2021, U.S. population was 330,814,165. The same Census Population Clock put S. Korean population at 51,250,000.
At 7:22 a.m. EDT, 1/13/21, we had 22,849,962 COVID-19 infections and 380,821 COVID-19 dead. S. Korea had 70,212 and 1,185, respectively, per Johns Hopkins’ COVID-19 Map.
Divide the respective numbers of infections and deaths by the relative populations of both nations to arrive at both the infection and death rates from COVID-19 for the U.S. and South Korea.
Multiply the U.S. population by the derived infection and morbidity rates of S. Korea so we may compare them. The S. Koreans adopted all national measures to suppress the pandemic, we adopted none, and both nations had their first confirmed cases of COVID-19 on January 20, 2020.
Multiply U.S. population by S. Korea’s COVID-19 infection rate to compare numbers of expected U.S.COVID-19 infected, yielding 453,215.41 or 453,216, not 22,849,962!
Multiply U.S. population by S. Korea’s COVID-19 morbidity rate to compare numbers of expected U.S. dead by COVID-19, yielding 7,648.42, or 7,649, not, 380,821.
Subtract expected numbers from the actual numbers to get 22,396,746 avoidable COVID-19 infected U.S. citizens and 373,172 avoidable COVID-19 dead U.S. citizens due to U.S. officials’ refusals to implement national, expert-recommended, science-based measures like S. Korea’s!
Now, COVID-19 is also a “pre-existing condition” Trump and Republicans are in front of the SCOTUS right now to keep from being covered by your health insurance!
Nationwide testing, tracing of contacts, isolation, treatment, social and workplace distancing, universal mask-wearing and washing or sanitizing hands, and 14-day quarantine on persons traveling here from foreign nations would have prevented over 22.3 million COVID-19 infections and prevented over 373,100 COVID-19 deaths.
S. Korea did and is doing it. The U.S. refused.
S. Korea did not close its economy for a single day.
Now is the time for decisive, compassionate, comprehensive measures to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic. We will NEVER see that from Trump nor from any Republican.
U.S. COVID-19 TIMELINE-1/13/2021
by Tim Hogan
President Trump was specifically warned of an impending “unexpected” pandemic that would hit the U.S. during Trump’s term.
In February 2017, Dr. Fauci told the Trump administration they would be hit with an unexpected epidemic and decried the lack of U.S. preparedness and U.S. inability to respond, and urged more funding and resources to be directed to fight any such an epidemic!
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-warned-trump…
2.Trump and Republicans gutted the budget for such preparations, canceled Obama era contracts for machines to make 1.5 million N95 masks daily, and moved people away from emerging or flu disaster preparation to chemical and biological WMD prep and response.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/d3c2b010-84dd-11ea…
https://www.businessinsider.in/…/articleshow/75548334.cms
The U.S. and S. Korea had their first confirmed COVID-19 cases on January 20, 2020.
In the 359 days that have passed since the first confirmed U.S. case of COVID-19, we could have made 538,500,000 N95 masks.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
January 2019 – September 2019, HHS gamed out “Crimson Contagion,” where a bird flu-like virus from Chinese open food markets hit the U.S.
The “Crimson Contagion” after-action report of October 2019, reported we were unprepared, would suffer millions of infections or deaths, and that the N.E. and upper-Midwest would be hit first and hardest. (pp. 46-51).
At this point, Trump knew something was coming and what its impact would be here at home due to his sorry state of preparedness and response. Trump later tried to blame the Obama administration for his pandemic woes but had dumped all Obama era plans and preparation to fight disease outbreaks as Obama had with the likes of earlier like SARS, H1N1, Zika, and Ebola.
https://int.nyt.com/…/05bd797500ea55…/optimized/full.pdf
https://www.nbcnews.com/…/fact-check-trump-falsely…
In November 2019, U.S. intelligence briefed Trump on the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, and its threat to the U.S. Trump did nothing.
No travel restrictions were imposed at the time.
https://thehill.com/…/491712-us-intelligence-warned-in…
The U.S.’ first confirmed case of COVID-19 was on Jan. 20, 2020.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
U.S., Chinese, and WHO doctors in China and Geneva warned the U.S. in January 2020 about the spread of the novel coronavirus.
https://www.who.int/…/30-01-2020-statement-on-the…
HHS issued an 01/31/2020 national Public Health Emergency declaration on the novel coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
Trump issued a partial travel ban on Chinese travel from Hubei, China but, no restrictions on U.S. citizens’ traveling to and from China.
Some 40,000 non-U.S. citizens traveled to the U.S. via air at that time and another 300,000 plus travelers flew to and from China with little attention paid to their health statuses.
https://travel.state.gov/…/presidential-proclamation…
https://apnews.com/article/d227b34b168e576bf5068b92a03c003d
The January HHS declaration of a national Public Health Emergency was extended for another 90 days, and again most recently, renewed on October 23, 2020, for 90 more days, through January 21, 2021.
https://www.aha.org/…/2020-10-02-hhs-renews-covid-19…
Trump’s first national action to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic was on 3/16/2020, by sending out 131,00,000 self-promoting postcards to all U.S. households and small businesses. The Postcards had large lettering of “President Trump” all over them.
The postcards did contain helpful guidelines to follow to avoid infection by COVID-19.
Trump followed NONE of the guidelines to avoid COVID-19 infection, instead, he ridiculed and scoffed at them, later making the White House and environs a “hotspot” for COVID-19 infections.
Trump’s numerous over-crowded, unmasked, crammed together “rallies” became hotspots for coronavirus infections where over 30,000 wound up infected with COVID-19 and over 700 killed!
Trump and his family all were infected as were over 50 persons at various White House “super spreader” events where no masks were worn, no social distancing was practiced, and DC crowd-size restrictions were ignored.
The White House Security Chief spent three months in the ICU and lost a leg after being exposed to COVID-19 at the White House. The medical bills are in the millions.
Trump stiffed the USPS for mailing the postcards.
https://www.usatoday.com/…/trump-faces…/2925379001/
https://www.usatoday.com/…/coronavirus…/5797364002/
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-white-house-covid…
https://www.ajc.com/…/white…/KY5K6ASU4RHZTMJ3K4W2LBFHIY/
https://www.cnbc.com/…/coronavirus-trump-campaign…
https://www.forbes.com/…/study-trump-rallies-linked…/…
We have lost an average of 1060.78 innocent Americans killed by COVID-19 each of the 359 days since January 20, 2020 (# of U.S. deaths/359), including 509.19 children PER DAY(# of U.S. infections x .008 child morbidity rate/359)!
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://www.census.gov/popclock/world
https://services.aap.org/…/children-and-covid-19-state…/
Trump’s second national action on COVID-19 was the May 2020 issuance of more “voluntary guidelines” on a CDC website for what steps for businesses and schools to take before safely re-opening.
Business interests complained the guidelines were too restrictive and they were only up on the CDC website for a day.
Businesses and schools later re-opened, but no state nor any locality met a single “voluntary guideline” metric before re-opening as Trump claimed a false choice between the economy and the public’s health and well-being saying the “cure can’t be worse than the disease.”
https://www.courthousenews.com/trump-squelches-cdc-guide…/
Nations that successfully suppressed the COVID-19 pandemic imposed immediate national mandates for testing, contact tracing, and isolation, and treatment when necessary, social AND workplace distancing, and mandatory mask-wearing, as well as frequent hand washing or sanitizing, and a mandatory quarantine period for all travelers from abroad.
https://www.forbes.com/…/china-and-south-korea…/…
No nation that ordered immediate national, expert-recommended, science-based measures to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic was forced to close their economy, as we did.
We needlessly lost trillions in GDP, wages, and the shutting down of most small businesses resulted in record numbers of jobless and record numbers of unemployment claims when we completely and avoidably forcibly shut down our national, state, and local economies.
South Korea did not shut its economy down for even a single day!
https://www.npr.org/…/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the…
Trump and Republicans have failed and refused and continue to fail and to refuse to take any prompt, nationally mandated action to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic, and we’ve had 22,849,962 COVID-19 infected and 380,821 COVID-19 dead as of 7:22 a.m. EDT today.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
As of 8:07 a.m. CDT today, we could’ve had only 453,216 total COVID-19 infections and only 7,649 total COVID-19 dead if we’d done as S. Korea did.
Comparison of the infection and death rates of both nations, show we could have prevented 22,396,746 COVID-19 infected and prevented 373,172 COVID-19 dead had we taken action like S. Korea!
The U.S. suffered 22,396,746 completely avoidable COVID-19 infections because of the “do nothing” policies of Trump and the Republicans.
The U.S. suffered 373,172 completely avoidable COVID-19 deaths because of the “do nothing” policies of Trump and the Republicans!
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://www.census.gov/popclock/world
Trump and the Republicans’ “do nothing” policies gave us a COVID-19 infection rate of 50.42 times and a death rate of 49.78 times that of S. Korea!
U.S. COVID-19 infections today are 24.91% of the world total and U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 19.38% of the world total, by far leading all nations.
Today, we have 4.276% of the world’s population.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://www.census.gov/popclock/world
In June 2020 Trump and the Republicans ordered 100 million mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses from Pfizer under an FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), and these have been delivered for distribution and use.
Trump repeatedly refused to exercise an option for millions of more doses, which now are going to other nations and their people.
https://www.forbes.com/…/pfizer-board-member…/…
The Pfizer vaccine takes two shots to be effective so there are ONLY 50,000,000 complete dosages for the 330,814,165 Americans as of 8:07 a.m. CDT 1/13/2021!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/coronavirus-pfizer…/
https://www.kltv.com/…/biden-team-ponders-vaccine…/
https://www.census.gov/popclock/world
On 12/18/2020, Moderna had its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine made available for use against COVID-19 under another FDA EUA!
The Moderna vaccine has apparent advantages over the Pfizer vaccine, it doesn’t require super-freezing to be preserved as super-cold freezers are not available to many rural hospitals, and it appears it may prevent transmission or “shedding” of the virus by those exposed and having been vaccinated by the Moderna vaccine.
However, the Trump administration has only purchased an option for 100 million doses, that have been delivered for distribution and use.
Like the Pfizer vaccine, the Moderna vaccine requires two shots to be effective. The ordered dosages will only cover 50,000,000 vaccinations of Americans.
https://www.nytimes.com/…/covid-moderna-vaccine.html
https://www.hhs.gov/…/trump-administration-purchases…
100,000,000 total vaccinations for 330,814,165 Americans completely sums up Trump and the Republicans’ COVID-19 response timeline very well.
Dr. Fauci told us on 12/24/2020 that as many as 90% of the U.S. population will need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 before “herd immunity” is reached.
Needless to say, 100,000,000 vaccine doses are NOT 90% of 330,814,165 Americans!
“Herd Immunity” is the percentage of persons vaccinated against a given pathogen that is large enough to effectively suppress further widespread outbreaks of that pathogen.
https://thehill.com/…/531611-fauci-herd-immunity-could…
The vaccine roll-out has been entirely botched by Trump and the Republicans with states getting doses in numbers of their respective populations, not on need.
Thousands of doses are being thrown out due to their going past their expiration dates due to non-use.
Some have been destroyed by those listening to the Trump and Republicans’ lies about the nature, severity, and scope of the COVID-19 pandemic and the safety of the vaccines.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-12-30/trump-coronavirus-vaccine-distribution-delays
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/wisconsin-pharmacist-who-tried-destroy-covid-vaccine-conspiracy-theorist-authorities-n1252770
President-elect Biden has been forced by the total lack of national response by Trump and the Republicans to the COVID-19 pandemic to tell us that despite new vaccine developments, “things will be far worse before they get better” again.
https://www.npr.org/sections/biden-transition-updates/2020/12/22/948929003/watch-live-biden-gives-remarks-ahead-of-the-holiday
Tim,
“No nation that ordered immediate national, expert-recommended, science-based measures to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic was forced to close their economy, as we did.” The nations to which you refer are Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Korea. The first four share a common trait, they are islands. South Korea has a land border, but its impenetrable nature makes the country a de facto island as well. The issues encountered by non-islands are different; listing those differences would be an idiot lesson, and I don’t presume you’re an idiot.
Contact tracing became impossible the moment the first case appeared in New York City. The subway system alone would defeat it. In any event, contact tracing cannot work in a country that does not control its borders. As late as April 2020 Bernie Sanders was still calling for open borders. In February, when the U.S. had already passed the point of no-return, Nancy Pelosi famously went on television to encourage people to visit Chinatown in San Francisco, denying the existence of a threat. There are no clean hands, and pretending otherwise is tribalism.
Your screed is a conclusion in search of evidence. In hindsight foreign visitors’ fourteen-day quarantine might have helped for a short period, but those entering illegally could not be quarantined, certainly not in an environment where every detainment was derided as fascist and proof that Trump was a Nazi. I’m not a Trump supporter, never voted for him, but most of what you have written is simply utter nonsense. The failure in vaccine distribution is specific to states, not the federal program. It’s an example of why, as I wrote earlier, logistics is the “long pole in the tent.”