Robert Burton has writen a book entitled On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not. [1] I haven’t read this book yet, but the topic Burton raises is a compelling topic to me (I called my prior post “I don’t know”). [2]
Here’s the thesis from Burton’s web site [3]:
Despite how certainty feels, it is neither a conscious choice nor even a thought process. Certainty and similar states of “knowing what we know” are sensations that feel like thoughts, but arise out of involuntary brain mechanisms that function independently of reason.
Burton is a neuroscientist who has explored the roots of conviction. He argues that the feeling of being correct does not spring from conscious thought and reasoning. It sounds like Burton is arguing that the gut feeling of being correct is more akin to an emotion.
Sounds right to me. I’m putting Burton’s book on my reading list.
Perhaps a topic this important merits one-billionth of one percent of the research budget of the CIA or Department of the Defense, wouldn’t you think? I’d require that all politicians take a seminar on this topic before making a single decision.
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