I got riled up while reading the latest Utne Reader by an article by Keith Goetzman entitled “Houston, We Have a Problem [1]“. He eloquently argues that we should stop wasting money on space research and spend it solving problems here on Earth.
Let’s look at the numbers. What fraction of a percent of our national budget is spent on space? NASA got about $16B in 2005 (including military allocations) out of $2,200B Federal revenues. That’s 0.72%, leaving only a paltry 99.28% to deal with problems here on Earth. I’m ignoring the record-high deficit spending that makes the NASA fraction even smaller. Look the numbers up yourselves. Check my assertions.
We could spend that little fraction on some other issues here at home. But how will we solve problems such as the next major asteroid impact? Yes, it will happen; we just won’t know when. How will we solve the problem of running out of {pick your resource}? Anything we need down here (or a reasonable substitute) can be found up there. After we build a space elevator, it would be cheaper to get it from up there than to dig it up here now! But, this project would necessarily be a crash program about as expensive as — and probably longer lasting than — a war in the middle east and it’s aftermath. Of course, the space elevator would employ a comparable number of people in a third world location that a hypothetical war on Iraq would kill for the same money.
Third World? A space elevator has to connect to the ground close to the equator. Columbia, Brazil, Congo, Kiribati, or some such. Most of the actual elevator work would be done in space, but a ground port and transportation thereto would be a big part of such a project.
But enough about war. There is no theoretical method of keeping our race alive beyond a big impact besides setting up an extraterrestrial enclave. This is not just a matter of technology. No matter what tools we may have here on Earth, we cannot stop a big enough incoming rock from exterminating us. However, a vigorous space program might be able to detect and deflect such a thing, much in the manner of some late 1990’s movies based on 1970’s ideas. Except that we don’t yet have the technology or space industry to actually do it.
Then, there is the issue of concentration of capital. I’m sure I’ll rant further on this later, but in brief: Collecting small amounts from many people allows governments (and some corporations) to do the Big Things that otherwise no one could afford to do. The antithesis of this is public entitlements. Taking the big capital amount, and spreading it out to the many people. Class action suits come to mind. You read about a Big Settlement, but the million plaintiffs each get $1/month for 18 months. The lawyers might get a third off the top. But, I digress.
We currently live in a rich enough country to be able to build for the long-term future. Yet many public voices argue for not “wasting” money on such projects when it could be spent on bigger grain subsidies or more food stamps. In the short term (for the next election) these voices are very persuasive. China has plans to build a moon base. They are capable of planning for the long term, and the rising fraction of Chinese names in cutting edge scientific papers published in the U.S. attests to their ability. America may no longer be leading the way, but we can still contribute to the long term survival of our species.
Assuming, of course, that this is a good thing.
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