Comments on: Peak Oil: We absolutely MUST talk about the elephant in the room http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/ Human Animals at the Crossroads of Culture, Science, Religion and Media Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:34:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Dan Klarmann http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15626 Dan Klarmann Tue, 08 Jan 2008 11:25:15 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15626 Given the collapsing dollar, and the forecast Democrat victories coupled with the convenient way the oil prices varied just as the Republicans have needed for the last 8 years, the $200.00 2008 oil barrel may not be that far fetched. But I'd expect the price to come back into line with extraction costs after the U.S. elections. Given the collapsing dollar, and the forecast Democrat victories coupled with the convenient way the oil prices varied just as the Republicans have needed for the last 8 years, the $200.00 2008 oil barrel may not be that far fetched.
But I’d expect the price to come back into line with extraction costs after the U.S. elections.

]]> By: Erich Vieth http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15625 Erich Vieth Tue, 08 Jan 2008 06:05:58 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15625 The fastest-growing bet in the oil market these days is that the price of crude will double to $200 a barrel by the end of the year. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac7ZyK0ovWrM The fastest-growing bet in the oil market these days is that the price of crude will double to $200 a barrel by the end of the year. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac7ZyK0ovWrM

]]> By: Dan Klarmann http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15079 Dan Klarmann Tue, 27 Nov 2007 13:38:34 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15079 Nik: Human population was growing nicely for a few centuries before the dawn of the industrial revolution that spawned (not rose from) the consumption of fossil fuels. Factories ran fine on water-turbine or wood-steam power. Running out of cheap oil will be disruptive to society, especially to the distributed, urban, automotive crowd. It could conceivably lead to the next crash of civilization, but that is a low probability scenario. It won't be the end of our species. Just consider the millions of people who are now living fossil fuel free existences. We may call it squalor in some cases, but it is survival. Except from having to fight off refugees, they may not otherwise notice the change. Nik: Human population was growing nicely for a few centuries before the dawn of the industrial revolution that spawned (not rose from) the consumption of fossil fuels. Factories ran fine on water-turbine or wood-steam power.

Running out of cheap oil will be disruptive to society, especially to the distributed, urban, automotive crowd. It could conceivably lead to the next crash of civilization, but that is a low probability scenario.

It won’t be the end of our species. Just consider the millions of people who are now living fossil fuel free existences. We may call it squalor in some cases, but it is survival. Except from having to fight off refugees, they may not otherwise notice the change.

]]> By: Niklaus Pfirsig http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15076 Niklaus Pfirsig Mon, 26 Nov 2007 22:54:08 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15076 I think I have pointed this out before. Cheap, abundant enegery is mankind's limiting factor. As the oil runs out, more and more people will die. Currently we have no practical alternative, and as the population increases, so does our thirst for oil. This is a problem that could lead the human race to a sudden end. We have to reduce the population, and at the same time apply some of the gene splicing technology to develop a plant that can produce oil, from the CO2 and water in the air. I think I have pointed this out before. Cheap, abundant enegery is mankind’s limiting factor. As the oil runs out, more and more people will die. Currently we have no practical alternative, and as the population increases, so does our thirst for oil.

This is a problem that could lead the human race to a sudden end. We have to reduce the population, and at the same time apply some of the gene splicing technology to develop a plant that can produce oil, from the CO2 and water in the air.

]]> By: Erich Vieth http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15058 Erich Vieth Sat, 24 Nov 2007 04:11:46 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15058 Ebonmuse: Your comment "time isn't on our side" is the key. We are currently producing automobiles that will be uneconomical (perhaps illegal) to run during the expected lifetime. This is sheer stupidity. We are also still building houses that the intended occupants will be unable to maintain, in a short number of years, due to their size and location away from the city centers. The silence if deafening, except for that ignorant and broken record response that "the market" will magically cushion our fall and make sure that everything will be fine. As though ANYTHING out there is positioned to replace the energy equivalent of the 5,000 gallons of oil per second that Americans currently use. Ebonmuse: Your comment “time isn’t on our side” is the key. We are currently producing automobiles that will be uneconomical (perhaps illegal) to run during the expected lifetime. This is sheer stupidity.

We are also still building houses that the intended occupants will be unable to maintain, in a short number of years, due to their size and location away from the city centers.

The silence if deafening, except for that ignorant and broken record response that “the market” will magically cushion our fall and make sure that everything will be fine. As though ANYTHING out there is positioned to replace the energy equivalent of the 5,000 gallons of oil per second that Americans currently use.

]]> By: Ebonmuse http://dangerousintersection.org/2007/11/23/peak-oil-we-absolutely-must-talk-about-the-elephant-in-the-room/#comment-15056 Ebonmuse Sat, 24 Nov 2007 02:49:42 +0000 http://dangerousintersection.org/?p=1825#comment-15056 Unfortunately, it seems like one of the most common reactions to the steadily rising price of oil is to turn to dirtier fuels (especially coal) that can still be obtained cheaply. What we're currently practicing is the growth strategy of a virus: multiply, consume all the natural resources in an area, and then move on. It's unsustainable by definition, and I find it deeply disturbing that so many people don't seem to recognize this. There are plenty of sustainable power sources out there. They may not be as cheap as oil and coal, but that's only because the true costs of fossil fuels aren't reflected in the price we pay for them at the pump or on the utility bill. We've already made a lot of progress in making the switchover, but we have a long way left to go before we can decarbonize our economy, and time isn't on our side. Unfortunately, it seems like one of the most common reactions to the steadily rising price of oil is to turn to dirtier fuels (especially coal) that can still be obtained cheaply. What we’re currently practicing is the growth strategy of a virus: multiply, consume all the natural resources in an area, and then move on. It’s unsustainable by definition, and I find it deeply disturbing that so many people don’t seem to recognize this.

There are plenty of sustainable power sources out there. They may not be as cheap as oil and coal, but that’s only because the true costs of fossil fuels aren’t reflected in the price we pay for them at the pump or on the utility bill. We’ve already made a lot of progress in making the switchover, but we have a long way left to go before we can decarbonize our economy, and time isn’t on our side.

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